08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

[Mr. BachNut]

trader0303

Possible bounce on SPX; target around 1171.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_4441.html

Are you feeling OK 99er? That seemed like a bullish post for you...

[Me XMan]

I've got balls if that's you want to know?

Not looking good here guys...SPX 1136

just to my curiosity, r u the crossing guy from cobra's chinese website?
back in the old days, i used to have a female fan. well i am not really sure, but she did send me pictures of a cute chinese girl and claimed it's herself. couple months ago, she left me a note saying she is going to that crossing man's blog or something then disappeared on me. is that u? is she really cute?

[Cobra]

the 2nd leg down as I said, now key time, anytime retest of the previous low, there's a chance of bottoming. I do not believe we're bottomed here, but no harm to know the back test is key time. I expect a lower low at least.

[ccash04]

bots are programed to buy the dips and sell the rips (mean reversion) however once real selling comes in again, then it will push the index levels down again, i have a feeling we will see more selling around 1-1:30 pm.

I figure this is still valid as volume picks back up we should continue to the downside w margin calls and people forced to close positions around 3-4

[Anaconda]

Given tomorrow is options expiration date, would anyone be surprised to see the market move up into tomorrow's close? Surely not. So, trade accordingly.
GL

[soku]

wow. just take a look at the fear index.

[v1stock.com]

cobra do you follow big money what they are doing? I think it's interesting to see if they buy the dips, as they are the once who drive the market, if so can you share with us? thanks

junk bonds

19% Dividend Stock With a Lot of Hedge Fund Buying
http://seekingalpha.com/article/288094- ... und-buying


At 54.9, consumer confidence is lower than at the worst of 2008-2009, and is very nearly the worst reading ever.

social and political upheaval and civil unrest have spread across the globe.

new plan; tighten stops, stop buying , sell all money market funds b4 others, set broker to sweep all funds to fdic bank CDs. look for buys sept 2 -5.

sold silver
gold stop 1790.
spy down on long charts

[Ninja Trader]

Cobra,

I'm just curious if you'd care to share......how long have you been trading?

I'm very impressed with your ability to stay unbiased all the time, you really 'go with the flow' so to speak

all great traders need to do this

[soku]

my box holds for 1 more time. technically it is noise, but since the box has 10 point range, it's ok to trade the noise. i will play the box until it breaks

[99er]

Mr. BachNut: "Are you feeling OK 99er?"

Yes, thanks. Simply a boring day to be a Bear.

Tomorrow will be better I'm sure.

[Ninja Trader]

here's something about consumer confidence to keep in mind:

The all-time high for consumer confidence occurred in October 1968, with a reading of 142.3. The Dow topped two months later and lost 36% over the next 18 months. Conversely, in February of 2009 consumer confidence hit an all-time low — and the DJIA bottomed days later. In April of 2009, after the stock market rally had already started, the Conference Board consumer confidence Index leaped 45% to 39.2, the second biggest jump on record. The biggest-ever increase came in April 1974, when three-quarters of the damage from the 1972-1974 bear market was still to come.

[99er]

SPX
Adam and Eve Double Bottom.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_8873.html

[Cobra]

Cobra,

I'm just curious if you'd care to share......how long have you been trading?

I'm very impressed with your ability to stay unbiased all the time, you really 'go with the flow' so to speak

all great traders need to do this

enough lesson learnt after lost a few hundred thousands.

[alvian33]

wow, sorry to hear that cobra, I also had big losses for the past 5 years, still learning, thanx for sharing your thoughts

[Ninja Trader]

Cobra,

I'm just curious if you'd care to share......how long have you been trading?

I'm very impressed with your ability to stay unbiased all the time, you really 'go with the flow' so to speak

all great traders need to do this

enough lesson learnt after lost a few hundred thousands.

ha! I've paid my fair share of tuition to the markets over the years as well.

[Cobra]

I didn't expect the rebound this early without actually testing the morning low. Let's wait for a few bars. I'm no clue for now.

[99er]

Hey Ben...

10-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/10y.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/30y_18.html

A bit overstretched these days?

[Al_Dente]

VIX just confirmed a head and shoulders top. Should be bullish for stocks.

[Cobra]

cobra do you follow big money what they are doing? I think it's interesting to see if they buy the dips, as they are the once who drive the market, if so can you share with us? thanks

I don't know how to follow big money.

I think the best way is to follow the price pattern, it never lies.

[StrikePrice]

There was definitely two ways to look at the Market yesterday. That's always tough. Technical analysis in all forms can be indecisive.

With times like that I like to look at the leader, because I believe that's what the pros do (I'm definitely not a pro). From the recent low AAPL was in a nice uptrend channel. It broke out of that channel on Tuesday while the market only broke out of it's channel today. This is why I think keeping an eye on leaders can add to analysis even if you're just trading ETFs.

Thank you.

AAPL made lower low right at 2pm. SPY did not. Maybe this time is different?

Well, i like what someone said earlier...don't try to front run the market. Let the market come to you.