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08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

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davros
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by davros »

the long bonds, tlt, are diverging here, look like they're topping out, which should be bullish for equities.
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Me XMan
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Me XMan »

Not looking good here guys...SPX 1136
Tabby
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Tabby »

trader0303 wrote:
According to your chart -- where are you looking for that to come?
Drops to 1095 and goes up 1180, it looks like another diamond bottom chart pattern as previously formed. I am not a chart patteren experts. What is chance this haapen again????????
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soku
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by soku »

paging "ocassional observer"

i think it is time to revisit these after today's data (i typed these points word by word)
john hussman's list of conditions:
· 10 yr treasuries below 6 month ago-V,
· spread 10 yr-3yr bonds smaller than 3.1%-V,
· ISM manufacturing under 54-V,
· nonfarm payroll growth less than 1.3% from a year ago-V,
· a widening in spreads between corporate and treasuries from 6 months ago ( barron's confidence index as proxy)-V
· and the last- equity markets lower than 6 months ago- on the verge.

anybody has connection with this guy, pls call him back.
The goal is not uniformity. It is understanding and idea exchange.
su_root
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by su_root »

Me XMan wrote:Not looking good here guys...SPX 1136
It sure doesn't. However, got one bottom signal on SPY 60min. 1 is better than none I guess..
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Mr. BachNut »

Tabby wrote:
Mr. BachNut wrote:Is it me or do the volumes seem a bit light for a crashy day?...
Mr. BachNut,
What is max pain for tomorrow opex? I am not an option trader. Is it still 118-120? does it matter now?
Don't think it matters now. Two issues: 1) Other things driving the market; 2) the open interest has got to be very dynamic right now. Current open interest must look nothing like yesterdays figures by now.
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v1stock.com
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by v1stock.com »

this looks like a list of fear~~~~~
but my vix would take 2 more days like this to give me a buy. can PPT do vix?

ETF - 52 Week HighsThursday, Aug 18th, 2011

AGG Barclays Aggregate
BIV Vg Intermediate-Term
BLV Vg Long-Term Bond
BND Vg Total Bond Market
CFT Barclays Credit Bond
DBP DB Precious Metals
DGL DB Gold Fund
DGP DB Gold Double Long
EDV Vg Extended Duration
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
IAU Comex Gold Trust
IEF Barclays 7-10 Year
ITM Intermediate Muni
LTPZ Pimco 15+ Year U.S
PHYS Sprott Physical Gold
SGOL ETFs Physical Swiss
TFI Barclays Muni Bond
TLH Barclays 10-20 Year
TLT Barclays 20+ Year
TMF Direxion 30-Yr Treas
TYD Direxion 10-Yr Treas
UBT Ultra 20+ Year Treas
UGL Ultra Gold
VGLT Vg Long-Term Governm
ZROZ Pimco 25+ Year Zero
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99er
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by 99er »

trader0303

Possible bounce on SPX; target around 1171.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_4441.html
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Me XMan
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Me XMan »

It better hold 1136 or 1120 or lower coming.
su_root wrote:
Me XMan wrote:Not looking good here guys...SPX 1136
It sure doesn't. However, got one bottom signal on SPY 60min. 1 is better than none I guess..
JustTrading
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by JustTrading »

99er
is this just an intraday call....or still think bounce to 1172 after today? thanks much.
silkway
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by silkway »

Two more spy P-BAR point to 119.7, interesting. :roll:
alvian33
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by alvian33 »

cobra do you follow big money what they are doing? I think it's interesting to see if they buy the dips, as they are the once who drive the market, if so can you share with us? thanks
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trader0303
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by trader0303 »

99er wrote:trader0303

Possible bounce on SPX; target around 1171.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_4441.html

Thanks....interesting analysis. :)
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99er
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by 99er »

JustTrading

Just intra-day.

I usually look at 60-minute charts.
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soku
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by soku »

Me XMan wrote:Not looking good here guys...SPX 1136
just to my curiosity, r u the crossing guy from cobra's chinese website?
back in the old days, i used to have a female fan. well i am not really sure, but she did send me pictures of a cute chinese girl and claimed it's herself. couple months ago, she left me a note saying she is going to that crossing man's blog or something then disappeared on me. is that u? is she really cute? :D
The goal is not uniformity. It is understanding and idea exchange.
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Petsamo
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Petsamo »

From Cobra's blog Monday or Tuesday, he stated that seasonality indicates bullish Monday & Friday. I'm already 98% long so I think I'll sit tight.
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Tabby
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Tabby »

Thanks Mr. BachNut for explanation.
StrikePrice
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by StrikePrice »

I see this correction as a flat and we're right around 1.62 the length of yesterday's correction of the down move.

My guess is the last move lower is to fill the gap and make a higher low. We're getting close to 3 std of 20MA BB on Weekly and Monthly 200MA is still an excellent Long Entry if it reaches further.

The markets think it's October 2008 all over again. Say goodbye to more volume as average joe flees away...
ocassional observer
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by ocassional observer »

soku wrote:paging "ocassional observer"

i think it is time to revisit these after today's data (i typed these points word by word)
john hussman's list of conditions:
· 10 yr treasuries below 6 month ago-V,
· spread 10 yr-3yr bonds smaller than 3.1%-V,
· ISM manufacturing under 54-V,
· nonfarm payroll growth less than 1.3% from a year ago-V,
· a widening in spreads between corporate and treasuries from 6 months ago ( barron's confidence index as proxy)-V
· and the last- equity markets lower than 6 months ago- on the verge.

anybody has connection with this guy, pls call him back.
thx. you can add philly fed absolutely awful to the list. currently next month under 50 ism is a certainty. however, the signal appeared when we broke the 1250 bottom of the march, june corrections. i'm now quite confident the US is already in recession together with most of europe, Brazil and Australia. the only relative bright spot is japan which is contracting *less* than expected. it is my belief we will breach the 1010 bottom of last year. the market's fair value is around 900, but usually bear markets overshoots downward. the true bull market will appear when shiller's CAPE is single digit and profit margins are well below average. currently profit margins are about 70% ABOVE average, so we have a long way to go.
Ninja Trader
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by Ninja Trader »

alvian33 wrote:cobra do you follow big money what they are doing? I think it's interesting to see if they buy the dips, as they are the once who drive the market, if so can you share with us? thanks
Cobra puts the accumulation/distribution charts of the players up quite often early in the morning

or another way to look is the way you see the CBOE skew in the vix it means MM's do not yet think the lows are in....
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