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08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Me XMan » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:46 pm

If you don't know, then book the profits.

jarbo456 wrote:
Nomorework wrote:Real question is, do I hold these deep in the money shorts overnight... How greedy can I really be. 5% down day was a homerun. Chart tells me we're still headed down so I will faithfully follow. Grand slam?


i'm having the same exact thoughts...holding 30 deep in the money SPY puts...sell and be happy with the profits, or follow the breakdown in the charts which indicates further downside.

honestly, it might be worth the good night sleep to sell them. not to mention, if we have anything like last week, 500 down, 500 up, 500 down...i'll be really sad.

so what's the verdict? lol
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:48 pm

seeyou wrote:
Cobra wrote:Symmetrical Triangle, I bet EW analyst would say this is wave 4, before the final leg down.

Hey Cobra... a low next week under 1100 ?


don't know yet, have to watch step by step.

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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Nomorework » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:48 pm

Anaconda wrote:
Nomorework wrote:Real question is, do I hold these deep in the money shorts overnight... How greedy can I really be. 5% down day was a homerun. Chart tells me we're still headed down so I will faithfully follow. Grand slam?


Right there with you. Hedging into the close, though, with some options.
GL.


Thanks, you too. My shorts expire tomorrow so I'll roll them to next month and look to hedge half the position around the final tick. Stop losses already moved up to 300% gain. I guess sometimes you can hit the knuckleball, but it ain't easy to do. Best.
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:49 pm

So much for the bounce...
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_4745.html

More fun in the futures market tonight?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/es_9990.html
Last edited by 99er on Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby soku » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:50 pm

jem3202 wrote:Always watch this forum, great stuff, first post.

Just an FYI -- I am making NO prediction about direction in the future past tomorrow, but be aware that if the VIX closes up 40% then when are guaranteed an up day tomorrow if my memory serves me correctly...

Only 5 cases, but just something to know for those wondering what to do with profitable shorts.

me agrees. especially, tomorrow is the oe day. traditionally it could be the kill-winner day. those deep itm puts need to be killed to save some cashflow
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby soku » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:55 pm

soku wrote:
soku wrote:
soku wrote:more reading of the market: es 1135-1145 area was the last heavily traded area. if bulls cannot hold here, we could see spike to at least 1110.



it seems a bo to me. moreover, es just back tested 1135 and was rejected. if es cannot quickly recover and stay at 1140 level, the next stop will be 1110 - 1115 ish

interestingly, 5 min zz did show a turn. what can i say, maybe somebody is trying hard to defend the market.
anyway, if we hold at 1130, it could be a ab=cd pattern with possible target to 1138-1140 area.


i am crying on this. i used to believe in justice. i used to believe in 'don't be evil'. but...
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby alvian33 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:55 pm

wow...
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby jem3202 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:56 pm

FYI -- you can go as low as 36% it seems and maintain 100% wins, 6 cases, some small, a few large, just letting everyone know.
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:57 pm

exited minus a small portfolio hedge position. long some sept. 107 calls. fingers crossed on not having europe decide to fall apart tonight...:D
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:00 pm

well, i think that's it for today. normally should be a rebound of some kind tomorrow. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby silicon_beaver » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:01 pm

Thanks Cobra.

loaded some ERX at end.
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby soku » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:04 pm

soku wrote:i am crying on this. i used to believe in justice. i used to believe in 'don't be evil'. but...

2, maybe 3, long bots hit almost all of the sell orders to bring /es up 10 points. if i read correctly, these bots' buy stop is 1140.
good luck. cya tomorrow
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Ninja Trader » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:28 pm

man, congrats to all of you that had the big shorts on today, awesome trade

I had CSCO puts that I mentioned buying here the day of the big earnings pop but I got rid of those today for a nice profit. I'm confused now so made no other trades and am loaded up with cash....

fwiw, the motive wave counts being presented here break all kinds of rules....please be careful. I've practiced e-wave and later neo-wave for a long time, I'm not entirely sure we've seen a real impulsive wave in over 11 years, its' a giant triangle we are forming over that period from where Im' sitting but who's to say at such a large degree of trend....
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby grachu » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:22 pm

Cobra. Are you expecting more downside at the opening ?
what do you think the spy will be at the lowest tomorrow?
thanks .g
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:59 pm

grachu wrote:Cobra. Are you expecting more downside at the opening ?
what do you think the spy will be at the lowest tomorrow?
thanks .g


88% chances close green tomorrow but 74% chances a lower low first.

No idea how low tomorrow.

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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby grachu » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:16 pm

Cobra thank you for the answer. Much appreciated . In your Market outlook you reference the break of the august 2009 (08/09) and also august 2010 ( 08/10 ) . Which year are are you taking about that will break, aug 2009 or augu 2010 ? sorry I am not sure is a typo. thank you so much . :shock: ;)
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Re: 08/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby grachu » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:22 pm

sorry I was tired, is August 8 this year? I am burn out .. too late too long day...
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