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01/08/2018 Live Update

Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Junior Buffett » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:18 pm

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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Junior Buffett » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:29 pm

Everyone is on SPY 3000 train...train is leaving the station...choo chooo...chooooo....all board in!

https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2 ... k/#respond
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:53 pm

Junior Buffett wrote:Everyone is on SPY 3000 train...train is leaving the station...choo chooo...chooooo....all board in!

https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2 ... k/#respond


Thanks, good read. :)
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:06 pm

this bull shall still have legs.
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:27 pm

Closing in on the overnight high. After that I am clueless as to what the bots are going to target.
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:31 pm

Coolbizone went short at 2745 or so in the pre-market. Tweeted that a move above 2746 would cancel his forecast of a drop to 2720 sometime this week. I say this to ask the question, how many other shorts are covering, and will new shorts come on when we pull back?
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:34 pm

Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.


this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic. ;) :) :lol:
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Junior Buffett » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:20 pm

fehro wrote:
Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.


this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic. ;) :) :lol:


I second that..lol...even next chair is about to go out of the door...

High time Cobra change his pic to bring the change! :D :D

Or is it that Cobra is giving us indirect hint..that until then, stay long! huh?
Last edited by Junior Buffett on Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:20 pm

ALMANAC TRIFECTA UPDATE:
STEP 1 = BULL.
STEP 2 = BULL, but note the last sentence highlighted below.

Reference:
Hirsch, Almanac TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by the 1/3/18 close, the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22/17) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is the first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years.”
2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8/18, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open on 1/2/18 (the first trading day of the year which opened at 2683.73 SPX), in order to call it BULL
3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close of the last day of the month must be higher than the open 2683.73 on 1/2/18
“trades with cats” notes: “My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12).. January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.”
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Junior Buffett » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:22 pm

Al_Dente wrote:ALMANAC TRIFECTA UPDATE:
STEP 1 = BULL.
STEP 2 = BULL, but note the last sentence highlighted below.

Reference:
Hirsch, Almanac TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by the 1/3/18 close, the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22/17) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is the first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years.”
2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8/18, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open on 1/2/18 (the first trading day of the year which opened at 2683.73 SPX), in order to call it BULL
3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close of the last day of the month must be higher than the open 2683.73 on 1/2/18
“trades with cats” notes: “My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12).. January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.”


So that's 50/50 chance of BULL or BEAR...not a great barometer I think..dont you think so?
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:43 pm

Gotta parse page 14 of the Almanac. It is the midterm election years where the first 5 days have a so/so record. In the case of up first five days it is at 83.3% up years, sample size of 42. Of the last 17 midterm election years only 8 followed the first 5 days direction. So it is a very good indicator except for the special case of the midterm election years.

The full month is a bit better with 11 of those 17 midterm years following the January direction.
What is of concern to the bears is that a down January usually precedes a switch from Bull to Bear market. So far every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction (not in our lifetime!) or a flat year. Average decline was 12.9% and usually provided a good buying opportunity. All on page 22 :)
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:45 pm

fehro wrote:this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.

Cobra had to wait out the Yellen era. He couldn't put a Janet Yellen head over his body now could he? :)
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:51 pm


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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Junior Buffett » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:52 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Gotta parse page 14 of the Almanac. It is the midterm election years where the first 5 days have a so/so record. In the case of up first five days it is at 83.3% up years, sample size of 42. Of the last 17 midterm election years only 8 followed the first 5 days direction. So it is a very good indicator except for the special case of the midterm election years.

The full month is a bit better with 11 of those 17 midterm years following the January direction.
What is of concern to the bears is that a down January usually precedes a switch from Bull to Bear market. So far every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction (not in our lifetime!) or a flat year. Average decline was 12.9% and usually provided a good buying opportunity. All on page 22 :)


Damn...I tried..BEARS are DOOOMMEEDDDD again...
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:53 pm

Well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been mixed recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:55 pm

Wow closing it out at the highs for the second day in a row. Maybe this time those finicky Europeans will get the message and not sell it off in the middle of the night!
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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:57 pm

If you guys talk my avatar again, I'll change it to a BIG BIG BIG BIG (insert 100 BIG) BULL! , there'll never ever be a pullback anymore like we Martian stock market! never ever!!! :evil:

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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:03 pm

Oh, I forgot, this part:

Wo hahahaha... ... :twisted:

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