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Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:18 pm
by Junior Buffett
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:29 pm
by Junior Buffett
Everyone is on SPY 3000 train...train is leaving the station...choo chooo...chooooo....all board in!
https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2 ... k/#respond
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:53 pm
by fehro
Thanks, good read.
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:06 pm
by Cobra
this bull shall still have legs.
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:27 pm
by Trades with cats
Closing in on the overnight high. After that I am clueless as to what the bots are going to target.
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:31 pm
by Trades with cats
Coolbizone went short at 2745 or so in the pre-market. Tweeted that a move above 2746 would cancel his forecast of a drop to 2720 sometime this week. I say this to ask the question, how many other shorts are covering, and will new shorts come on when we pull back?
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:34 pm
by fehro
Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.
this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:20 pm
by Junior Buffett
fehro wrote:Cobra wrote:this bull shall still have legs.
this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.
I second that..lol...even next chair is about to go out of the door...
High time Cobra change his pic to bring the change!
Or is it that Cobra is giving us indirect hint..that until then, stay long! huh?
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:20 pm
by Al_Dente
ALMANAC TRIFECTA UPDATE:
STEP 1 = BULL.
STEP 2 = BULL, but note the last sentence highlighted below.
Reference:
Hirsch, Almanac TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by the 1/3/18 close, the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22/17) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is the first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years.”
2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8/18, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open on 1/2/18 (the first trading day of the year which opened at 2683.73 SPX), in order to call it BULL
3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close of the last day of the month must be higher than the open 2683.73 on 1/2/18
“trades with cats” notes: “My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12).. January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.”
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:22 pm
by Junior Buffett
Al_Dente wrote:ALMANAC TRIFECTA UPDATE:
STEP 1 = BULL.
STEP 2 = BULL, but note the last sentence highlighted below.
Reference:
Hirsch, Almanac TRIFECTA has three markers for bull/bear:
1) Santa Rally, which is the seven-trading day period beginning on the open on December 22 and ending at the close on January 3. This means that by the 1/3/18 close, the SPX must be higher than 2684.22 (which was the open on 12/22/17) in order to call it BULL. “ A positive Santa Claus Rally is the first step toward a positive January Indicator Trifecta which historically has preceded well above average performance in past midterm years.”
2) As the S&P goes the first five days in January so goes the year, which means that Monday’s close (1/8/18, the fifth trading day of the year) must be higher than the open on 1/2/18 (the first trading day of the year which opened at 2683.73 SPX), in order to call it BULL
3) As the S&P goes in January so goes the year… close of the last day of the month must be higher than the open 2683.73 on 1/2/18
“trades with cats” notes: “My hardcopy almanac makes it clear (page 12).. January barometer has .746 correct. 10 of the last 17 midterm election years followed January Barometer. *8 of those 17 followed the first 5 days of January rule.”
So that's 50/50 chance of BULL or BEAR...not a great barometer I think..dont you think so?
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:43 pm
by Trades with cats
Gotta parse page 14 of the Almanac. It is the midterm election years where the first 5 days have a so/so record. In the case of up first five days it is at 83.3% up years, sample size of 42. Of the last 17 midterm election years only 8 followed the first 5 days direction. So it is a very good indicator except for the special case of the midterm election years.
The full month is a bit better with 11 of those 17 midterm years following the January direction.
What is of concern to the bears is that a down January usually precedes a switch from Bull to Bear market. So far
every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction (not in our lifetime!) or a flat year. Average decline was 12.9% and usually provided a good buying opportunity. All on page 22
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:45 pm
by Daniel
fehro wrote:this bull will have legs I think, until Cobra .. updates his Bernanke profile pic.
Cobra had to wait out the Yellen era. He couldn't put a Janet Yellen head over his body now could he?
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:51 pm
by Cobra
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:52 pm
by Junior Buffett
Trades with cats wrote:Gotta parse page 14 of the Almanac. It is the midterm election years where the first 5 days have a so/so record. In the case of up first five days it is at 83.3% up years, sample size of 42. Of the last 17 midterm election years only 8 followed the first 5 days direction. So it is a very good indicator except for the special case of the midterm election years.
The full month is a bit better with 11 of those 17 midterm years following the January direction.
What is of concern to the bears is that a down January usually precedes a switch from Bull to Bear market. So far
every down January since 1950 was followed by a new or continuing bear market, a 10% correction (not in our lifetime!) or a flat year. Average decline was 12.9% and usually provided a good buying opportunity. All on page 22
Damn...I tried..BEARS are DOOOMMEEDDDD again...
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:53 pm
by Cobra
Well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been mixed recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:55 pm
by Trades with cats
Wow closing it out at the highs for the second day in a row. Maybe this time those finicky Europeans will get the message and not sell it off in the middle of the night!
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:57 pm
by Cobra
If you guys talk my avatar again, I'll change it to a BIG BIG BIG BIG (insert 100 BIG) BULL! , there'll never ever be a pullback anymore like we Martian stock market! never ever!!!
Re: 01/08/2018 Live Update
Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:03 pm
by Cobra
Oh, I forgot, this part:
Wo hahahaha... ...