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01/10/2018 Live Update

Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:51 pm

J Kemp Spec oil.png

From John Kemp.
As an aside big build in products as refineries are running hard, more or less expected draw downs in oil, reduction in production ( I call cold weather and holidays) and a reduction in imports. Overall the market did not like it.

Why I am not bullish on oil is simple. People added to credit card debt for the last three months of the year while their incomes didn't change. Tax cuts will go to pay those down, not cover inflation. So this winter Joe Sixpack is going to be even more broke than last winter so I think fewer miles on that new F350 quad cab long bed. Or if you live in the city the equivalent Maserati Quattroporte, i.e. aspirational overpriced gas hogs.
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:03 pm


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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:04 pm

One has broken through, the other is working on it....
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:25 pm

Bears AD started out great on the open (NYAD, middle panel)
Then they covered and covered and covered (as per usual) until now there’s hardly a bear in sight
Bulls need to hang onto those higher lows, else ka-boom they’ll be stopped out
1min, intraday
110ad 1.png.png
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:39 pm

Remember that “flash crash” in VIX on December 20
Well "Guess what?"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... lash-crash
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:40 pm

Zerohedge saying today's Treasury auction went well with plenty of foreign buyers. So panic is over. Still Bill Gross is short the market and he and his wife didn't get matching Ferraris by making stupid market calls. You knew this string of up days was close to the end so why not now. :)
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:40 pm

Levered smalls working its way higher....
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:51 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Zerohedge saying today's Treasury auction went well with plenty of foreign buyers. So panic is over. Still Bill Gross is short the market and he and his wife didn't get matching Ferraris by making stupid market calls. You knew this string of up days was close to the end so why not now. :)

1/10 calling for an end to the secular bull market in rates, starting with Bill Gross ,who said that the "bond market was confirmed today", followed by Jeff Gundlach who said that while Gross is early, it will only take 2.99% on the 30Y to break the trendline….Should Gundlach be correct, and 10Y yields explode higher once 2.63% is breached, we may find out [SOON].
…Mint Partners' Bill Blain declares the onset of normalization and that "this was the moment we've all been waiting for." And the WSJ even trotted out a staple headline we have seen every year since 2010: "Investors Prepare for Inflation as Bond Yields Rise."
…not everyone is buying the "bond bear market" thesis.
In a note released this morning, SocGen's FX strategist Kit Juickes observes that "the (bond) bears are calling for a picnic" but he is skeptical …: "I'll believe the bond market has turned when 10year TIPS yields have broken 1% (and nominal yields have broken 3%). That's where yields ran out of steam in the 2013 Taper Tantrum, as the sell-off in asset markets (notably in EM), prompted the Fed to soften its tapering stance and change its forward-guidance."
ZH: we agree with Juckes that bear market calls are premature

I do notice that TLT broke below its 200dma this morning (bad for bonds), but yield TNX, the reciprocal, broke above 200 in oct (good for yield, bad for bonds):

110bonds.png.png
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:55 pm

So the “consensus” seems to be that bonds (and equities) will get stressed when the 10yr treasury yields are somewhere between 2.63% and 3%.
Right now they are at 2.56% (25.61 on $TNX)
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:03 pm

Waiting for Zerohedge to repost that target chart that shows change in bonds and or equities to cause to Bridgewater type funds to trigger a deleveraging. But at this point it was just a threat from China with Bill Gross jumping in to talk his book.

So should we care about a twitch like today? I think so as the experts say a loss of confidence is what will trigger a major sell.
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:08 pm

Al_Dente wrote:So the “consensus” seems to be that bonds (and equities) will get stressed when the 10yr treasury yields are somewhere between 2.63% and 3%.
Right now they are at 2.56% (25.61 on $TNX)

That is consistent with the RATE WATCH way back in 2014, when the "experts" opined that at a certain point, higher rates start being too stressful for long equities. Those possible stress points (on the TNX) in 2014 were estimated at: SocGen: 2.60%, GS: 2.75%, JPM: 2.75%, Jeff Gundlach: 3%, Bill Gross: 2.6%. Those numbers look errily similar to the chatter today.
Monthly:
110tnx monthly .png.png
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:15 pm

stop was hit
don't let them take it all back
110tna one.png.png
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:17 pm

hey anyone notice that down P-Bar on SPY (1 min) almost an hour ago?
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:22 pm

Current selling seems to be due to Reuters blasting out a series on Trump pulling out of NAFTA.
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:23 pm

Can the VWAP contain the pullback??
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:24 pm

Al_Dente wrote:chatter today...


:)
..Meanwhile, topping tails so far on both TNX and TYX--with the current yield right on the upper (std) bollyband. And with their 50day MAs about where they were 6 months ago.

And, quietly, exuberantly, $FVX (5year yield) keeps on trucking up the chart at a 45 degree angle, barely touching its 20day MA for the past 6 mo.

Never take your eyes off FVX, said Bernie Schaeffer over and over. In many articles he wrote. He thought it the most reliable Treasury yield to watch.
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:25 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Current selling seems to be due to Reuters blasting out a series on Trump pulling out of NAFTA.

thanks for that news boss
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:26 pm

The levered bear in bond prices (bond prices go down, this goes up)....
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:28 pm

Eight day view of the levered bond bear. See the breakout on this chart... Seems to be filling the gap right now...
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Re: 01/10/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:33 pm

IWM back red.
QQQ losing the 15min 20ema. SPY finding some support here on the 15min 50ema.

KRE is just loving the higher rate projections.
IYR is down over 1% (with its std MACD at a 6mo low).
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