Cobra's Market View

Got the lower high as in a legit double top, waiting for the lower low. VWAP at ES 2779 which is also 11:30 low, so clear support level. No rush to go short on a day like this! But going into the weekend at all time highs is scary for a long.

TWC just gave a great summary for this chart!

pullback will be bought again.

Dr. Hussman lays it out, for your weekend reading. He has had an amazing record in surviving major bear markets. He flowdered around during the first part of this bull but has retooled his system and is now back in the game. He explains why he is neutral and what will make him go bearish. https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mmc180101/

INTRADAY
TNA breaks higher low, while miners get a HOD

Triple top and two higher lows so far. Isn't this some sort of wedge pattern?
Anyway small caps off in their own world steadily lower since the morning high while tech has no double top, just a higher high. Sort of looks like we are back to normal without tight correlations.So if it was a buy everything or a monster short squeeze doesn't matter, it's over for now.

SUBMITTED FOR CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM
[WORK IN PROGRESS]
According to Bloomberg, the big guys “smart money” play very big AT THE CLOSE.
So I’m looking for a 1) spike up in price at the close (top panel), and 2) a spike in buy volume at the close (green panel) to suggest up next day.
If I don’t see buying at the close, it suggests no conviction for up next day.
Looks promising so far, with cyan boxes indicating fails…….. stay tuned….
Couple of notes:
1) analysis is based solely on price and volume at the close, and ignores the participation indices (nyadv, nydec, bottom panel) for the moment.
2) the 400-lines on NY volume are arbitrary numbers and may be changed.
3) bloomberg pegs this to INDU rather than SPX

Al_Dente wrote:SUBMITTED FOR CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM
[WORK IN PROGRESS]
According to Bloomberg, the big guys “smart money” play very big AT THE CLOSE.
So I’m looking for a 1) spike up in price at the close (top panel), and 2) a spike in buy volume at the close (green panel) to suggest up next day.
If I don’t see buying at the close, it suggests no conviction for up next day.
Looks promising so far, with cyan boxes indicating fails…….. stay tuned….
Couple of notes:
1) analysis is based solely on price and volume at the close, and ignores the participation indices (nyadv, nydec, bottom panel) for the moment.
2) the 400-lines on NY volume are arbitrary numbers and may be changed.
3) bloomberg pegs this to INDU rather than SPX

112smart.png

Very interesting...

Well ETF ETN rebalancing is supposed to be a really large chunk of it. Makes sense that they wait for End of Day to sync up with the underlying. Another area is the last 15 minutes of the futures market from 4 to 4:15. Us little guys have to have enough cash to cover full exchange margin at 4 so for 1 car of the ES my margin requirement goes from around $500 to around $5300 so it is a safe bet the last 15 minutes are the pros only. On the days where your new system fails I would look to see if the Futures reversed the closing move.

Al_Dente wrote:AD is weaker today than yesterday
BUT NY bull volume = 2x bear volume

bull volume eases off to 1.5x, and that’s just not enough to support this +188 point dow
… whatever… well, it can change quickly.… oy
CURRENTLY:
NY advancing stocks = 1.0 x declining stocks (flat 1-to-1)
NY advancing volume = 1.5 x declining volume (not strong enough)

OK quad top. Usually, according to Cobra the third or fourth time market won't stop. Could possibly maybe just barely be a special case today because we are talking about an all time high on Friday afternoon after two weeks of rapid relentless advances. So just maybe this thing has run out of gas for today.

Response from Norwegians (who are not in a shithole country)
"Why Would We Come?"
"Of course people from Norway would love to move to a country where people are far more likely to be shot, live in poverty, get no healthcare because they're poor, get no paid parental leave or subsidized daycare and see fewer women in political power."
[zh]

Trades with cats wrote:Well ETF ETN rebalancing is supposed to be a really large chunk of it. Makes sense that they wait for End of Day to sync up with the underlying. Another area is the last 15 minutes of the futures market from 4 to 4:15. Us little guys have to have enough cash to cover full exchange margin at 4 so for 1 car of the ES my margin requirement goes from around $500 to around $5300 so it is a safe bet the last 15 minutes are the pros only. On the days where your new system fails I would look to see if the Futures reversed the closing move.

good points, thanks boss

pullback, I mean the dent will be bought again.

Cobra wrote:pullback, I mean the dent will be bought again.

mind TLT VIX VXX all at HOD and green.. "may" see profit taking

Week at a glance (~hour before the close)
Best performers here: discretionary (pink) and banks (red)
Worst performers here: most of the defensives

now 50% chances of double top here.

UUP flirting w a fresh lod here.
This dollar index proxy ETF has been down over 1% today! That's a huge move for a major currency.

I have a dream.

fehro wrote:

Cobra wrote:pullback, I mean the dent will be bought again.

mind TLT VIX VXX all at HOD and green.. "may" see profit taking

mind SPY's open gap for crazy close for the long weekend.