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01/18/2018 Live Update

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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Trades with cats wrote:Wasn't me, it was Northman Trading's idea. His point was that someone was triggering a buy everytime RSI 14 got below 30 on a 15 minute chart, while a year ago it was the same on a daily chart.

My issue is that there is no good sell signal to go with it. Any reasonable stop loss and you are better off with buy and hold as not every drop is followed by a buy signal and sitting out a 50 point run up kills your edge. :P
:D
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
te_fern
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

TICKs have continued right on down....
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Daniel
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

IWM, RSP lod
Trades with cats
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Senator McConnell killed the move up above VWAP 10 minutes or so ago by talking to the cameras. He is having to play hardball with a series of votes to try and force some Democrat voters for the stop gap spending bill. Wasn't supposed to be this tough to keep the doors open.
Daniel
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

Al_Dente wrote:Rob Hanna: "Current market conditions appear abnormal"
It's always a good idea to absorb anything Mr. Hanna chooses to publish.
Thx for bringing this to the Board.

In this case, it brings to mind an indicator which the Bernie Schaeffer Shop used to maintain, and perhaps still does. It distinguished between “defensive” puts, bought in quantity by large institutions as they opened mammoth long positions (especially in overbought markets)... and “speculative” puts, outright bets on a stock or market decline.

Such a further level of drill-down might illuminate that odd conjunction of 40day highs.

:?:
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

IWM intraday
Knock-three-times favors breakdown and would trigger more shorts
Alternately: if it can bounce above the downtrend-red line of the descending triangle, that would trigger covering
118iwm one.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

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Trades with cats
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

OK ES back at VWAP and another negative republican press release, I think they are trying to kill the market! :lol: :D
Trades with cats
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

I am watching the 10 year bond on FinViz today it seems to be ignoring these government shut down news events.
fehro
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

Markets have tended to shrug off shutdowns as long as the debt limit is not involved. The 1995, 1995-96, and 2013 government shutdowns had a modest effect on financial markets (Exhibit 1). The dollar weakened slightly in all three cases in the few days following each shutdown, with a further leg down in 2013 as the debt limit deadline approached. Treasury yields did not react meaningfully at the start of these shutdowns. The equity market reaction was inconsistent, with a slight decline in the early days of the December 1995 and October 2013 episodes, but no real change around the November 1995 shutdowns

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... n-explains
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

“Jeff Flake Says Senate Preparing 5-Day Spending Stopgap To Avert Weekend Shutdown”
What we need is a 10 day stopgap to get us through the Circus that is Davos:

Jan 23 to 26
The World Economic Forum at Davos: a confab of rich bankers and world leaders and billionaires stroking each other. They will alight from their private jets and will be limosined to their luxury Swiss resort, where they’ll chat over champagne, caviar and foie gras. And Christine Lagarde will be overheard once again, stating emphatically: “Yes, we really should address global-income inequality this year.”
Yup, POTUS will fit right in.
How much does it cost to go to the World Economic Forum at Davos?
There are several levels of membership: the basic level, which will get you one invitation to Davos, costs about US$52,000. The ticket itself is another US$19,000, plus tax, bringing the total cost of membership and entrance fee [PER PERSON] to US$71,000 [and that doesn’t include the jet, the limos, the hotel, the etc.].
Also attending - courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer - will be [per leak]: Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and a gaggle of assistants.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Everyone is hyperventilating about YIELD
Most of the “experts” agree that equities will get too stressed out when the 10yr yield is somewhere between 2.63% and 3%.
Right now it is at 2.60% (25.60 on $TNX), after hitting 2.62% (26.20) at the open today
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Trades with cats
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

What the experts really want to say is where they think Bridgewater has the sell stop set to start deleveraging. Problem is Bridgewater has seen what prior episodes did to their bottom line so I would think they will be more nuanced. At the same time Fed speakers are making it clear they want a surprise rate hike. Scary times indeed for bond funds.
te_fern
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

It wants to break through the red MA line, come on, you can do it!!!
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

GS asks and answers, who will be most hurt by higher yield, $TNX (they expect rates moving higher)
HOUSING
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te_fern
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Is that a little pop up?? Are we turning up today?? :D
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te_fern
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

And the answer is maybe....
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Cobra
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

the rebound shall have legs.
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te_fern
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Need the smalls to get pulled back up to highs....
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superxy
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Re: 01/18/2018 Live Update

Post by superxy »

I doubt spy will be red today... Anther stat failed... :shock:
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