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01/20/2018 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

80% chances at least another all time new high the next week.
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Cobra
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

The last time government shutdown - no big deal, unless it takes very long time this time.
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

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The longest government shut down was 21 days when Clinton was in power from Dec 16, 1995 to Jan 5, 1996. Also no big deal for the stock market.
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

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And the last 3rd shut down was again when Clinton was in power, lasted 5 days, the market didn't even care.
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

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Here's a little history about US government shut down: http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/13/politics/ ... index.html

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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

So according to the shut down history I posted, Monday might be gap down but then up and up and up? The market is very overbought now so hard to say up and up and up part but I don't expect big down.

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fehro
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by fehro »

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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by fehro »

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... redictions

Greenspan came in the summer of 1987 and we had the infamous 1987 crash just a few months later. Ben Bernanke came into office in 2006 and famously proclaimed the housing market was fine. We know what happened. When Janet Yellen took over in 2014 markets immediately dropped nearly 7% and had another set of corrections in 2014/2015 and 2016. Since then: No more corrections. Correlation is not causation, but it’s a factor to consider as the Fed struggles with their rate hike schedule. We know new Fed chairs have found themselves dealing with corrections and even crashes as markets perhaps test the new Fed Chair. What is unknown is the when, but history suggests the new Fed Chair will have some market turbulence to deal with during his first year in office.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Notable earnings reports due:
Mon 1/22: before the open: HAL, and after the close: NFLX, AMTD
Tues 1/23: before the open: JNJ, PG, VZ, and after the close: TXN
Wed 1/24: before the open: NSC, CMCSA, GD, GE, and after the close: F, LM, RJF, XLNX
Thurs 1/25: before the open: MMM, CAT, BIIB, RTN, UN, and after the close: ETFC, INTC, SBUX
Fri: 1/26: before the open: UBS, HON, and after the close: none

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Al_Dente
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Re: 01/20/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

THE SHUTDOWN
Because the labor market is tight, now would be the perfect time to lay-off/fire half of these people and let them compete for jobs in the private sector. But that’s hard to do because of various regulations and protections. According to a USA Today study, job security is so strong that workers at most federal agencies have a greater chance of dying on the job than they do of getting fired. Plus federal government salaries are more lucrative than private sector salaries. Quoting OLD DATA:
“In 2014, the average federal employee salary was $84,153, approximately 50% more than the average private sector worker earned. This discrepancy increases to 78% when benefits are included. The average federal worker costs the government (aka taxpayers) $119,934.”
[The Cato Institute, 2015]
Over 300,000 federal employees earn over $100,000 in salary, and the top 1,000 of those earn a minimum of $216,000... many of those in the highest level are employees at the Department of Veterans Affairs — the same VA that distributed over $142 million in bonuses during charges of mismanagement and falsifying records.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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