Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

   

01/27/2018 Weekend Update

01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:20 pm

67% chances up the next week.
84% chances at least another all time new high the next week.

Yes, up 1%+ but NYAD is only 279 which means only 279 more advances than decliners, but unfortunately or fortunately, it doesn't really matter in the short term. It happened a lot in 1999 before the year 2000 top and often happened during bear market.
Attachments
3.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 41038
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:35 pm

The U.S. is still a consumer economy (70-77% consumption economy, depending on what data you use).
Late last year I posted this LONG TERM sector-performance chart, dating back to the big bottom in March 2009 (weekly chart).
XLY (discretionary, pink) is still blasting to the moon, and should continue (long term) as long as credit-card debt/mortgage debt/student-loan debt DEFAULTS don’t get too big.
126 SAVE 2009.png.png

Same chart, but I added the percentage performance of Visa (V): it’s in eye-popping lime.
I’d like to show a single symbol that includes all credit-card debt/mortgage debt/student-loan debt, but I don’t have one...… any ideas?

126 2009 visa .png.png

It would be valuable if anyone on board would post any fresh data on DEFAULTS when you find credible articles.
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 20758
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:55 pm

LONG TERM, monthly chart
Fundamentals
FWIW, grain-of-salt
126monthly economy.png.png
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 20758
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:30 pm

here're the majority cases (highlighted in red) when SPY up 1.1%+ while NYAD < 280.
Attachments
UpOnPoorNYAD.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
 
Posts: 41038
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:41 pm

Another one of BofA’s "guaranteed bear market" indicators just triggered.
This one is different from all of their other bear-market indicators they’ve been blabbing about for a year, plus it’s odd because I thought earnings have been revised UP, not revised down [??]
BofA's conclusion: "a tactical S&P500 pullback to 2686 in Feb/Mar now very likely."
[Hmmm, that would be what, about a -6.5% drop by March, okay then…]
ZH says to play-it-safe: As a result, buying some 3 month puts here is probably not a bad idea. [But then, ZH is always buying puts]
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... -triggered

[edit: add: SKEW is 117.99. Folks aren't very interested in buying OTM puts... at the moment...]
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 20758
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:29 pm

Pasta Boss- First I will tell you that a daughter who lives in LA and works for the government thinks her mother would be wise to block Zerohedge on my computer. I have assured her I never read the domer porn just the financial news feed. ;) And here is the on the other hand- They did put up a piece from Morgan earlier in the week where they said puts were as cheap as they had seen and were advising clients to protect themselves. Full cycle investment advisors with an internet presence like Real Investment Advice and of course Dr. Hussman and his mutual funds are all talking adding some put insurance to the portfolio.If it was just Goldman I would assume sales were down.

I learned the hard way many years ago that being right with the wrong timing was the same as wrong. But this crowd are all suggesting to fully invested long term holders, the ones we call other time frames (OTF traders), who aren't getting out start spending some dividends to protect principle. Not the same as the usual Zerohedge end of the world with re-education camps click bait. And really at the rate this thing is going up in January who really cares about the next three months dividends if it means locking into those gains and sleeping at night.
Trades with cats
 
Posts: 6263
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 01/27/2018 Weekend Update

Postby te_fern » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:29 pm

Pasta Boss, in Friday's blog you asked about the inverse ETF to CURE. As far I can tell there isn't one. I looked on Direxion's site and didn't see one. They also just started another Pharmaceutical type of ETF (3X) called PILL and it doesn't appear to have an inverse either...
te_fern
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm


Return to Traders Lounge

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], K447, Trades with cats and 51 guests