Cobra's Market View

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the rebound for now looks like a bear flag, but again, nowadays very rarely bear flag actually works, beware.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/01 ... ay-update/

Overnight gap up on YM, ES and NQ.

Some early leaders.

XRX, GE, AAPL up and down, NKE, PBI and SPY with a gap up and consolidating. So far ...

Currency pairs. Basing before resuming trends?

EIA oil inventory report on deck.

IWM fills the overnight gap.

Maybe too obvious and therefore will not play out - 60 min chart H&S in the making? Visit 2800?

yesterday's VWAP, now on today's chart as the low of the day and the expected pre-FOMC low. Bond market may be changing that plan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... rsion-mean


However, currently, the market is pushing towards 4-standard deviations (99.9 percentile) above the 52-week mean. As shown below, this is “rarefied air” for the market historically.

SPX yLOD goes .. look to 2807 .. that goes then 20d 2794ish that goes then 2760

@AnthonyCrudele y'day said first hour close below 2835 = more down (that is his prop indi system)

Here his article he just sent out for slightly longer term view
http://www.futuresradioshow.com/blog/warning-sign-sp/

.

Yesterday NYSE new lows 251
The day before that was the NYSE new lows 204, warning signal

Was anybody surprised to see US oil production continue to soar. Between bonds, VIX and Apple waiting for the Hedge Fund margin calls to start on their record long oil positions.

10yr Yield TNX is holding well above the neckline of her inverse H&S
Eventual target is approximately 29.40 (2.94% yield)
Daily chart

mind RUT close today… on 20d SMA .. hanging on for dear life.. under look to 50d TRANsports <20d tagged at HOD .. mind possible H&S on GLD daily "IF" a lower high forms and 20d goes.. look to 124

AD, daily
Yesterday’s damage reversed the long trend from November
Like most indicators, it can easily chop around, or pop back up… but the signal is down until it does...

ALMANAC:
“Of the last 79 [FOMC] announcement days, the S&P 500 finished the day positive 47 times [59%] . Of these 47 positive days S&P 500 was down 27 times (57.4%) the next day. Of the 32 down announcement days, the following day was down 17 times (53.1%). All 79 announcement days have 0.43% average S&P 500 gains while the day after has been a net loser with S&P 500 declining 0.30% on average.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17031 ... lly-a-good

I think market will shoot higher later in the day or tomorrow...doesn't look good for BEARS...