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02/05/2018 Live Update

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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Better than 94% of the time the first hour opening range is broken. That popped collar group selfie crowd from Chair Yellen's last day better get at it or it will be the lower end of that range for the second day in a row! :o
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

My software showing this as an inside the lines day since the morning rally with the highs at the top of the 70% (1 standard deviation) and that swing low at the bottom. Point of control or the mean is at ES 2756. That would be the next upside barrier after the market gets past VWAP, if it can.
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Cobra
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

AAPL is testing her 200sma on the daily :o

AAPL weighting update:
APPL is 3.57% of SPY (AAPL is its heaviest weight, MSFT is #2 at 3.02%, AMZN is #3 at 2.3%), as of 2/1/18
AAPL is 10.65% of QQQ (its heaviest weighted holding), as of 2/2/18
AAPL is 4.33% of the dow (the #7 heaviest weighted stock in the dow), as of 2/2/18
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Sharply "rising bond yields. Full employment. Fed tightening. Trade frictions. Weak dollar. Rising twin deficits, spurred by tax reform. Sound familiar? It should. This was 1987." [David Rosenberg, last week]

GS:
2018 ranks as just one of 13 years since 1950 to start with a January return greater than 5%.
Investors are asking about the likelihood of a repeat of 1987, when a 13% January return and additional 20% rise through August were destroyed on one day, Black Monday, Oct. 19, when the index fell by 20% [actually -22.6%]. The full-year return of 1987 was +2%
GS:
What we saw Friday is not 1987, because bla bla bla, tax reform windfalls and EPS growth.
But with the FED gradually tightening, rising rates should limit further P/E multiple expansion, and equity mean-reversion is inevitable.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

1 hour Opening Range low ES 2734.25. Overnight low ES 2733.0. Lots of targets below that left from the week of January 8.
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Where Goldman is so very very wrong is the load of debt for share buybacks in a rising rate environment. Apple is the exception where they have the cash to repay debt should they choose. Most do not. That share buyback that has made it possible for Goldman to claim rising earnings when in reality gross (not per share) have been flat is a two way amplifier. So unless they can get sales and net up faster than interest expense increases things are going to go from great to bad very quickly and then the special non-recurring charges will start.
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Just made our 94% stat for the day with a tag of the overnight low.
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Cobra
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

testing day low, key time.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Here’s my old “How to De-Risk Your Portfoio” charts, wherein you sell all your risky stuff and buy what is considered “more safe” and buy puts.
It looks like this time really may be different, as folks are selling risk, but they're not buying much “safety.”
Problem is bonds/yield. Okay, China maybe will reduce treasury purchases, and the Fed isn’t reinvesting in treasurys… (bonds down/rates up).
And they’re not buying utilities (rate sensitive).
But they’re not even buying staples :?
25de risk.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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MrMiyagi
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Post by MrMiyagi »

Cobra wrote:testing day low, key time.

NO MORE BABY JANET TO HELP US!!!
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Pasta Boss, who has any cash to buy. From Calpers to Fido they are all as all in as they have ever been. Need some 401K money to come back into the market along with getting closer to next earnings season for the buybacks to start back up. :P
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

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The Super Bowl Indicator: The S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.1% for the calendar year when the Patriots lose the Super Bowl versus a 1.5% gain when they win, according to LPL Financial data.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

...
Last edited by Al_Dente on Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

The total number of job postings for the marijuana industry increased 445% in 2017, according to the job-search website ZipRecruiter, and there are now more people working in the industry than there are dental hygienists in the US.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Trades with cats wrote:Pasta Boss, who has any cash to buy. From Calpers to Fido they are all as all in as they have ever been. Need some 401K money to come back into the market along with getting closer to next earnings season for the buybacks to start back up. :P
I thought when they sold off the risky stuff, they would buy staples with the proceeds
nope
but they are buying puts
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

I gotta laugh, Citi, B of A , Morgan, Deutsche Bank all calling on public to buy puts for several weeks, nobody buys. What they were calling for happens, then they buy.
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

so far rebound is weak, maybe low wasn't in yet?
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brokebybernacke2
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by brokebybernacke2 »

most chatter talking heads still bullish, how 'healthy' this correction is... all waiting for bounce where to catch to new highs... me no likey that. not even a mention of a top being in - me want lots of fear to buy. best guess range a bit before test of 2700 should do it for a good bounce. guess... treasury auction tomorrow should be a mover..
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Re: 02/05/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Zerohedge at it again with graphics
Zerohedge at it again with graphics
Fumar, one of my trading cats, is not amused.
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