Cobra's Market View

Three hours later and once again bouncing between the bottom of the value range 2625 (1 standard deviation) and the Point of Control 2638 and VWAP 2640. So really nothing has happened today except building a consensus on where fair value is, which is centered around 2640 ish. The more days the market spends centered on that price range the more energy is built up for an eventual move.

Junior Buffett wrote:

fehro wrote:be very careful.. looking for a possible shocking up move near end of day.. target sloppy pattern SPY 275 .. need serious break up 5m

That's almost reversing whole move from yesterday! i.e. point wise..

dead cat bounce.. we did move $30 points down .. so whats a $10 point up move between friends? then be ready for a possible generational short.. something no one in this generation has seen

rebound as expected. 100% mm possible, target day high.

target met, the rebound shall have legs.

HAPPY HOUR

1 hour opening range broken to the upside today, 94% stat fulfilled.

another 100% mm possible.

Yesterday's VWAP at ES 2703.75, but I don't think it is very meaningful after such a strange day.

OPINION:
anyway ……… going forward…..
The VIX IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED until this thing is “over” (circa Jan 20 ??)
Spikes are no longer folks buying puts to protect their long portfolios
Drops are not necessarily call bets
All moves in VIX are now all about short-covering in the “short vol” community
Cover-your-arse anyway u can, in any vehicle you can find
Algos gone berserk. XIV opens then circuit-breaker halts twice/thrice
The quants won’t be fired until after Jan 20
The VIX IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED

fehro wrote:..... looking for a possible shocking up move near end of day.......

great call boss

Al_Dente wrote:OPINION:
anyway ……… going forward…..
...

Whose opinion is this?

bit of a bearish gartley here.....caution. like to see it overridden here

Al_Dente wrote:OPINION:
anyway ……… going forward…..
The VIX IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED until this thing is “over” (circa Jan 20 ??)
Spikes are no longer folks buying puts to protect their long portfolios
Drops are not necessarily call bets
All moves in VIX are now all about short-covering in the “short vol” community
Cover-your-arse anyway u can, in any vehicle you can find
Algos gone berserk. XIV opens then circuit-breaker halts twice/thrice
The quants won’t be fired until after Jan 20
The VIX IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED

Well said

I think they will just eliminate this monster called VIX...will save some $ to some naive investors...

ATTENTION GOLD MINERS:
Earnings reports tomorrow
Wed: 2/7: after the close: AEM, ABX, GG, KGC

K447 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:OPINION:
anyway ……… going forward…..
...

Whose opinion is this?

mine

brokebybernacke2 wrote:bit of a bearish gartley here.....caution. like to see it overridden here

also 2690s in that 38% retrace off the highs, yuk..get me above 2700 much more comfy

Al_Dente wrote:

K447 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:OPINION:
anyway ……… going forward…..
...

Whose opinion is this?

mine

You mentioned Jan 20, so this was repeat of an older post?

Al_Dente wrote:

fehro wrote:..... looking for a possible shocking up move near end of day.......

great call boss

thanks, mind 50d SMAs