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02/08/2018 Live Update

02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:26 am

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lower high, double top, slight higher high and anytime sharp pullback, all are bad, must be up and up and up.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:29 am


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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:34 am

buckle up.. be very careful.. SPX nears a thin zone.. look for possible huge fast moves.. if we go lower 60m
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:40 am

fehro wrote:buckle up.. be very careful.. SPX nears a thin zone.. look for possible huge fast moves.. if we go lower 60m


Vol at price… bars to the left of chart fwiw
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:42 am

ALMANAC:
“Historically a Slow Road to Recovery After DJIA and S&P 500 Daily Losses of 4% or More”
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17061 ... after-djia
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:50 am

not looking good
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:55 am

Re: the XIV crash:
The largest XIV shareholders (from last year’s public filings):
Note that Credit Suisse, the XIV’s issuer, was also the largest shareholder of 4.78 million shares.
http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php? ... ned-to-xiv

I can’t verify this [single source only]:
“…as 4pm EST came around, a bad day in XIV, but survivable, became the death knell, because the largest holder, the XIV's custodian
[Credit Suisse], panicked, and covered.
But, Credit Suisse could not very well just sell millions of shares of XIV in a thinly traded after hours session, so it turned to the VIX futures market… it appears that whatever this "flash crash" did, whatever margin calls were triggered after hours, the short vol trader was in fact the firm [Credit Suisse]-- it unwound positions in a size that the market has never seen before…”

[They would normally be doing a routine rebalancing of the fund at EOD, but something went haywire. We don’t know the full story yet. And now that CS is not creating new shares, XIV is trading like a “closed end fund” with a premium/discount to “NAV” or IV…. Stay away.]
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:59 am


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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:09 am

Al_Dente wrote:ALMANAC: “Historically a Slow Road to Recovery After Daily Losses of 4% or More”
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17061 ... after-djia

I always enjoy and respect the work of the Hirsh family. We all benefit when you intermittently link the Board to Jeff's blogposts.

On this one, however, I'm dubious of the historical utility... (except in one respect).

The recent SPX decline halted at the ES overnite 200day MA. Nearly to the tick.

This is "Algo Panic" behavior. This is not gradually-evolving market sentiment and psychology. This is sheer technical marketchess. Historical precedent? Hmm. Back in 1930--1950 people were feeding the cattles and figuring out moving averages on new gadgets called "handheld calculators" from some disrupter company in Texas named Texas Instruments. I dunno.

The one utility, imo, would be to track whether the largely-technical rebound fails, or goes to new highs, in any way that follows historical precedent.

If not, it would be more evidence that we are truly in a new post-psychology era, one where Algos can panic not only at bottoms (like humans do) but at any point in a trending move. That would truly be a game-changer, and much historical data would instantly become ‘quaint’.

:)
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:29 am

Daniel,
Show some respect for those of us who still have our slide rules, even if we can't remember how to use them :lol: :lol: :lol:
Seriously I have read about the early market technicians who kept hand made paper charts back in the day, like the McClellands and their NYMO. The digital processor has made their archain craft available at a bargain price to everyone.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:30 am

Daniel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:ALMANAC: “Historically a Slow Road to Recovery After Daily Losses of 4% or More”
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17061 ... after-djia

I always enjoy and respect the work of the Hirsh family. We all benefit when you intermittently link the Board to Jeff's blogposts..... :)

:D
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:32 am

$TNX, the yield on 10yr treasuries, is now 2.87% (new high)
Rising yields were one of the reasons for the crash. It’s clear on this chart that the breaking point was 2.70% (27.00) TNX

28yield.png
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Postby MrMiyagi » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:36 am

Only Baby Janet could have fixed this mess.... :roll: :cry:
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:40 am

ES 03-18 (1500 Tick)  2_8_2018.jpg

The simple price volume indicator I am using puts the profile on the left. Orange line is current Point of Control (most common price) while the dark green (bottom) and light green (top) show the 70% range,i.e. 1 standard deviation. This is an orderly market and existing support and resistance levels are for the most part being honored. According to Futures Trader 71 volume and range are still 3 times what we were experiencing and he thinks the hedge funds (longer time frame traders) are still extremely active overwhelming the day traders. Nanex is still saying the market depth is very light which says to me the liquidity algos are on a tight leash.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:40 am

Trades with cats wrote:Daniel, show some respect for those of us who still have our slide rules, even if we can't remember how to use them :lol:

Disrespect far from it. I'm old enuf to have chosen my first HP handheld calculator model because it had this new feature called "moving average mem-storage" and so all I had to do was add each new day's datapoint. It could give me weighted, exponential, or standard.

But as to whether the 'arcane' arts of technical analysis (TA) retain as much utility, I really believe the jury is still out.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:47 am

Al_Dente wrote:$TNX, the yield on 10yr treasuries, is now 2.87% (new high)
Rising yields were one of the reasons for the crash. It’s clear on this chart that the breaking point was 2.70% (27.00) TNX


So you have to give the evil site credit for commenting that someone must have tapped Gandalf on the shoulder when he changed his deleveraging level from 2.7 to 2.85 just as things were going kaboom. Insert clip of Jack Nicholson in uniform screaming about you can't handle the truth.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:48 am

SPY lod
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Postby MrMiyagi » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:52 am

Daniel wrote:SPY lod


More to come by the looks of it, maybe a retest of the week's lows.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:54 am

The AD at 10 ET, a bit early, but bear bias at that moment

NY advancing stocks = 0.49 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 0.51 x declining volume
NY declining stocks = 2.0 x advancing stocks (now 3.0x)
NY declining volume = 1.9 x advancing volume (now 3.3x)
Last edited by Al_Dente on Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 02/08/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 am

Trades with cats wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:$TNX, the yield on 10yr treasuries, is now 2.87% (new high)
Rising yields were one of the reasons for the crash. It’s clear on this chart that the breaking point was 2.70% (27.00) TNX

So you have to give the evil site credit for commenting that someone must have tapped Gandalf on the shoulder when he changed his deleveraging level from 2.7 to 2.85 just as things were going kaboom. Insert clip of Jack Nicholson in uniform screaming about you can't handle the truth.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7a1TxVV4Bg
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