Cobra's Market View

With or without indicators this week I feel like I am in one of those Jurassic Park everyone off the island stampedes. We have already seen a Swiss T-Rex crush a bunch of people and there are a lot of other large longer time frame traders running with us. So you gotta get off the island and survive the process.

$LUMBER at a fresh 6month+ high.

Anybody seriously worried that the recent stock decline represents concerns over "a sudden recessionary event the market is anticipating"?
..as one so-called analyst put it on popular radio yesterday.

vix is DOWN 4%?

Bouncing on the overnight lows. London Frankfurt shorts are being rewarded. Do they hold for the test of ES 2637 or take their profits now?

this bear may have legs.

brokebybernacke2 wrote:vix is DOWN 4%?

No, up 1%. I don't expect VIX to move like it did earlier this week, the volatility is now relatively stable, unless we break below the lows, it should not have wild moves.

Daniel wrote:$LUMBER at a fresh 6month+ high.

Anybody seriously worried that the recent stock decline represents concerns over "a sudden recessionary event the market is anticipating"?
..as one so-called analyst put it on popular radio yesterday.

Guess my only concern is that most is looking for lower lows for the eventual big bounce to buy on way to new highs. Technically makes sense and new highs based on big spending increases on top of tax changes in new budget , but which then may overheat things down the road...However, 2 contrarian chances in that statement- lower lows (maybe not coming) or new highs (bounce, yes, but dead catters not to newer highs) . My money manager with big firm says 2019 recession and slide into presidential election 2020, fwiw...it is not Gartman...

and vix is back up..

Two fun quotes from my twitter feed.
First from Alistair Williamson - it is hard to see upside in $SPX when $VIX 25 & UST10Y 2.883. When does the next deleveraging start?
Second from Fortune Magazine via FuturesTrader71- Winklevoss twins say Bitcoin will hit $320,000 and non-believers suffer a ‘failure of imagination’
My opinion, given Fortune's track record as a contrary indicator is this the end for Bitcoin?

anyone knows why TD declined my short order for HVU.TO? I have sufficient funds in my account...

Yesterday I was repeating the internet gossip about Deutsche Bank and their largest holder HNA. Now on twitter from the evil site the Wall Street Journal saying HNA ready to dump their US real estate investments. IF HNA is allowed to go down (I assume that decision will be made at the highest levels of the Chinese government) then it could be a very real catalyst as they fire sale assets around the world and all the scribblers who have been saying the next collapse will come from China will be crowing.

They probably don't have the shares. Bar Charts or somebody has a screen showing which brokers can do shorts on which stocks.

Junior Buffett wrote:anyone knows why TD declined my short order for HVU.TO? I have sufficient funds in my account...

broker has not enough stocks to lend you

Cobra wrote:

Junior Buffett wrote:anyone knows why TD declined my short order for HVU.TO? I have sufficient funds in my account...

broker has not enough stocks to lend you

Thank you! Do you know, how that can be known for us?

Trades with cats wrote:They probably don't have the shares. Bar Charts or somebody has a screen showing which brokers can do shorts on which stocks.

Thank you! exactly, how can we know?

Daniel wrote:$LUMBER at a fresh 6month+ high.

Anybody seriously worried that the recent stock decline represents concerns over "a sudden recessionary event the market is anticipating"?
..as one so-called analyst put it on popular radio yesterday.

My Great Uncle was 23 yrs old in 1929 and had been trading in 1920's, was worth well over $2 million in 1929. I asked him specifically what was the feeling leading up to Oct 1929, he said everything was going great, no one was expecting a slow down, and the "crash" when it started to slide it was not seen as a "huge" event AT THE TIME. He was wiped out in 1930, but continued trading until he was 108 yrs old, and passed away 11 days shy of 110.

Rising interest rates were one of the big, big factors in 1929, along with over leveraging in stocks, companies and real estate. The last of those who "lived" it in 1929 is gone. "This time is different??"

fwiw

1der wrote:

Daniel wrote:
My Great Uncle was 23 yrs old in 1929 and had been trading in 1920's, was worth well over $2 million in 1929. I asked him specifically what was the feeling leading up to Oct 1929, he said everything was going great, no one was expecting a slow down, and the "crash" when it started to slide it was not seen as a "huge" event AT THE TIME. He was wiped out in 1930, but continued trading until he was 108 yrs old, and passed away 11 days shy of 110.

That is just awesome !!

`

Sorry it has been too long since I was hunting for short availability I don't have the links anymore. That was one of the reasons I went to Interactive Brokers, combo of availability and they don't gouge you on interest. Also if you ask they can set you up to trade in multiple countries. You would be surprised at how hard that is for a small US based trader, even before Obama violated the UN rules with the all your money is mine stuff that made US passport financial customers poison.

my vacuum cleaner IRBT got hit hard on an eps miss
the street has been yapping about competition for a very long time

IRBT breaking my kitty cats heart.

Working on a double top. Target of ES 2637 still valid. If this isn't a double top looking for es 2713