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02/10/2018 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm
by Cobra
Down 2 weeks in a row:

64% chances up the next week.
61% chances lower low the next week.


Re: 02/10/2018 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:55 pm
by Al_Dente
I see this on a number of indices, Friday:
“Bullish reversal 60% of the time” …" not far from random (50%)"

looks like: “Takuri Line Candlestick” which has better odds (!!!) “Bullish reversal 66% of the time”
“A small bodied candle with a lower shadow at least three times the height of the body and little or no upper shadow.”

Re: 02/10/2018 IWM this week

PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:41 pm
by tim-follows
IWM 60 minute PF,
after the dbl bottom breakdown, looks like IWM might have difficulty above 151 area

filling in low volume down towards 135 might be in store this week, with a pause around 139....

Trade up into cpi tuesday then resume downward perhaps

Re: 02/10/2018 IWM monday

PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:55 pm
by tim-follows

one minute PF: possible inverse HS, then develop right shoulder between 145.60 and 148.80
(THANKS Fehro, my Hero)

or if straight up, the dbl bottom breakout on 60 minute would be invalid

Re: 02/10/2018 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:32 pm
by Al_Dente
Hammers all over the place
The notoriously fickle VIX diverges (favoring bull SPY)
High CPCE is “near a SPY bottom” level (last time there was mid Aug, 2017)
“Fear & Greed Index” is at extreme fear @ 10 (it was 8 on Thursday; contrarians are taking note)
BofA thinks the FED will step in near here. "Markets stop panicking the moment central banks start panicking."
[zh: that's the $6.4 trillion question: at what SPX level would central banks step in? … not yet…]

All new FED Chairs get tested: ... k=f8ikAM07

Everyone (yes, everyone) is watching the SPY 200sma. If it can hold convincingly … yippee SPY.
If it breaks down convincingly there should be plenty more selling, as folks will think that this correction could turn into a crash

Green shoots can evaporate in an instant
Friday’s lower lows should be tested
IWM broke 200sma Friday, and junk HYG broke days ago
IWM Friday went down more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 50ma, quite extreme, then it closed above that. (btw: It was the only major index anywhere near that 3.5 std-dev marker)
Friday’s new 52-week lows = 356 (they keep increasing… not good…)

The breadth (participation) index $BPSPX Bullish Percent, says SPX is bull above 60% BP, pullback below 60% BP, and bear below 50% BP.
It also says there is no rush to re-enter long IN THE LONG TERM PORTFOLIO. Wait until the Bullish Percent recovers to above 50-60% before going long again.
So what, you' ll be a bit late...
Also note that the last LONG-TERM signal was bull in Feb 2016 (green arrow), and it remained bull for almost 2 years until the bear (red arrow) now.
The Fibonacci drawn from the 2-year low to the recent high, shows that a 38.2% retracement (considered a minimum for a decent correction) would hit at roughly 244 SPY. If it corrects to better than 38.2% (higher than 244 SPY)… then it’s bullish SPY. If the correction goes deeper than that, then we’re headed for 50% or worse.
Weekly chart
SAVE 29 bull percent.png.png

Re: 02/10/2018 Weekend Update

PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:33 pm
by uempel
Chart by Rolf Bertschi who used to chart for CS. Looks as though channel low has not yet been tested.