02/13/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down here, FEEL bias is up though.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/02 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Overnight volume was 2x usual, a large drop from the last several days where it was running 3x. Range was smaller also. Could be the big funds are completing their repositioning and we will soon be back to just us day and swing traders playing with the algos.

[Cobra]

probably will fill the gap, let's see.

[Daniel]

Dow Transports lod
VXN hod

[ccash04]

Pull the rug!

[Daniel]

GLD, SLV, USO lod
Both XLY and XLP strong from the open and near HOD.

[Daniel]

probably will fill the gap, let's see.

Bears beware: VXN and RVX simultaneously hitting LOD...

[Daniel]

Bulls beware: XBD, EWG, USO all lod here.

In fact-- everyone beware.

[Trades with cats]

Not going anywhere. Been in this range since London/Frankfurt opened. Plenty of targets higher and lower to move this to, but so far no deep pocket operators to push it. Could be a long boring day if you are an adrenaline junky.

Trying to not get chopped up.

[Al_Dente]

According to BofA’s February Fund Manager Survey (163 participants with $510BN in AUM),
Fund managers have taken out protection against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next 3 months, and are rotating into cash and out of equities.
Average cash balances rise to 4.7% this month, up from 4.4% in January (avg = 4.5% past 10 years).
Allocation to equities fell to net 43% from net 55% overweight, the largest one-month decline in two years;
allocation to bonds now at a record low of net 69% underweight.
80% expect rates to rise.
60% say Inflation & bonds most likely catalyst for cross-asset crash.
91% say recession "unlikely"
Best contrarian trade: long Utilities, short Banks
[zh]

[Trades with cats]

ES 2636.50 has been tested 5 times since 3:30 AM New York time.

[Daniel]

...Best contrarian trade: long Utilities, short Banks...

XLU lod. KBE lod.

[Al_Dente]

last night:
"Due To Market Volatility", Tradestation Requires Full Margin On All Overnight Futures Trading
100% margin required on ES, TF, YM, NQ, RTY
Old initial margin was 25%; quite a bump.
If other firms follow suit, this may put a damper on overnight crazy shit

[Daniel]

Multi-sector surge above their respective OR-30s... lead by emerging mkts and QQQ.

However, moments later-- looking more like a headfake.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/02 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

third test of the range high since we dropped into it around 2 am.

[tim-follows]

According to BofA’s February Fund Manager Survey (163 participants with $510BN in AUM),
Fund managers have taken out protection against a sharp fall in equity markets in the next 3 months, and are rotating into cash and out of equities.
Average cash balances rise to 4.7% this month, up from 4.4% in January (avg = 4.5% past 10 years).
Allocation to equities fell to net 43% from net 55% overweight, the largest one-month decline in two years;
allocation to bonds now at a record low of net 69% underweight.
80% expect rates to rise.
60% say Inflation & bonds most likely catalyst for cross-asset crash.
91% say recession "unlikely"
Best contrarian trade: long Utilities, short Banks
[zh]

so the greatest pain occurs with a lower than expected cpi
if within range of expectations, record shorts in 10yr futures will likely cover a bit, seems slightly bullish for equities tomorrow

[Daniel]

NYSE advancers very low and well off high.
Naz also low, but not far from the hod.

[Daniel]

probably will fill the gap, let's see.

QQQ did fill, to the penny (158.87 hod)