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02/17/2018 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

SPY up 1 week means 78% chances higher high ahead the next week.
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Cobra
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 6 days in a row, short at close, pretend dead until SPY first red day, 70% chances making money. profit factor 2.1 which is an OK trade.
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tim-follows
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tim-follows »

McClellan intermediate term , perspective....

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... ogue_wave/
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Al_Dente
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

[Financial Times]:
“Flush with cash after the Republican tax cuts, Cisco announced on Wednesday [2/14] that it was building gleaming factories across the US, employing hundreds of thousands of workers to make the latest cutting-edge routers.
Sorry, of course not. The money is going back to shareholders.”
:lol: :lol: :lol:

BUYBACKS act “… as a floor, you have a natural buyer in there" [Birinyi's Jeff Rubin]

GS says: “Since December, S&P 500 firms have announced buybacks totaling $171 bn.
YTD announcements of $67 bn represent a 22% increase versus the same period in 2017.
The buyback window has re-opened and firms are taking advantage of the recent correction; the GS Buyback Desk reported that last week was the most active week in its history.

JPM says: the amount of announced buybacks just in the first 6 weeks of 2018 is already greater than all of 2009.

glass half empty: “all net debt issuance in the 21st century has been used to pay for stock buybacks...”
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
tsf
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... xt-painful

"Everything Changed In 2011... What Comes Next Is Painful": Deutsche

...........


here was Citi lashing out on Valentine's Day at the concurrent plunge in bonds and the USD:

So somehow we have embraced the theme that was with us through January. On a day when inflation beats in the US (incidentally retail sales missed): stocks are up, yields are up and the USD lower does not add up.

Then on Friday, Deutsche Bank's George Saravellos doubled down, while at least attempting an explanation:

We are well into 2018 and our feedback from recently attending the TradeTech FX conference in Miami is that the market is still struggling to understand or embrace dollar weakness. How can it be that US yields are rising sharply, yet the dollar is so weak at the same time? The answer is simple: the dollar is not going down despite higher yields but because of them. Higher yields mean lower bond prices and US bonds are lower because investors don't want to buy them. This is an entirely different regime to previous years.

.......

[The recession-recovery path post-2008] starts, as usual, with a selloff in risk assets and a rally in bonds (1 & 2), but as the crisis deepens and QE gets deployed (3), the action moves (and stays) on the off-diagonal where both bonds and equities rally. Unwind of QE now becomes essentially a de-risking move -- it goes against the grain of recovery.

Currently, we are heading towards point 4, beginning to catch sight of the bifurcation point (5) from which the market could either sink into the “stagflationary” trap (6: everything: stocks bonds and currency, sell off) or move to the 1st quadrant if the Fed and Congress manage to engineer a turn around and we get catapulted towards what looks like a traditional recovery. This is the biggest challenge for the Fed at the moment, which is further complicated by the ongoing rise in volatility. This complication, which appears to come naturally in this context, is further amplified by the Fed’s negative convexity exposure to inflation.



Image


the market's current growing confusion at the divergence of the stock-yield-USD action, is the direct result of the gradual policy unwind...

After years of calm and predictable markets, suddenly there seems to be many things going on at the same time. As recently as early January, the incoming vol supply could not find a buyer as vol selling and carry trade remained the dominant themes. This changed practically overnight as rates broke through significant technical levels, which triggered a spike in gamma, which quickly spread across all market sectors. With every new installment of stimulus unwind, it seems as if things are moving in reverse, but not to where we left them, rather towards what appears to be an unknown and unfamiliar destination. This is proving to be a highly unconventional tightening cycle and recovery.

... which takes us to his prediction of what comes next. The simple answer: "pain."

After years of forced hibernation, brought about by suspension of traditional trading rules by the central banks, the markets are facing a painful process of re-emancipation. This is causing considerable confusion and anxiety.

Finally, for those "confused and anxious" about the catalyst for the next cycle of pain, look no further than volatility, and specifically where it goes from here - its trajectory will determine the fate of not only the market but also the economy, to wit: "In the subsequent months, a particular pattern of volatility, in terms of its breakdown across different assets, will determine the mode of risk rebalancing. In that context, volatility will play a decisive role in determining the success and timing of the recovery and a particular economic trajectory."
tsf
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

This video from Ciovacco Capital strongly argues for the bull case based on 1978-2018 chart of $SPX divided by $USB

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oASHZRtumP0
tim-follows
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Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tim-follows »

Al_Dente wrote:[Financial Times]:
“Flush with cash after the Republican tax cuts, Cisco announced .....
Sorry, of course not. The money is going back to shareholders.”
:lol: :lol: :lol:

BUYBACKS act “… as a floor, you have a natural buyer in there" [Birinyi's Jeff Rubin]
first 6 weeks of 2018 is already greater than all of 2009.

glass half empty: “all net debt issuance in the 21st century has been used to pay for stock buybacks...”


SO, as long as it makes sense to issue debt and reduce stock supplies, .......
At what point does this equation become fundamentally unsustainable?
Particularly if dollar dropping because foreigners do not want to own usa govt debt due to fiscal impropriety?
Can ted spread go negative hahaha?
Dont know how to get technical analysis for these issues haha
tim-follows
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:02 am

Re: 02/17/2018 Breadth Weekend Update

Post by tim-follows »

article pdf by Morris.....nice perspective"

he says
Breadth like quantum mechanics...a number of potential outcomes with various probabilities of these events occurring....

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 4.app3/pdf
tim-follows
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:02 am

Re: 02/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tim-follows »

the bond debacle....

"Hedgers look to have a crowded trade in play at this time. Over the past 10-years when they were positioned like this, the 10-year note was more often closer to a short-term low than high. Will it be different this time?"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... -peak-play
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