Cobra's Market View

From John Kemp twitter
"US DISTILLATE STOCKS are down -3 million bbl since start of year compared with -1 million bbl in 2017 and 10-year seasonal average of -4 million bbl"

also

"US REFINERY THROUGHPUT was +418,000 b/d above 2017 level and +1.2 million b/d above 10-year seasonal average"

So personally I am guessing we just aren't importing as much gas from Europe as we were last winter. Therefore the difference is coming out of inventory so the majors don't see a lot of price improvement in the near future. More evidence that global supply demand is getting closer to balance. I don't know if or how the weaker dollar would effect the margins on dollar denominated oil refined in euro land then resold here. I do know the weaker dollar must make gas a better deal around the non-dollar world adding to demand.

Trades with cats wrote:From John Kemp twitter
"US DISTILLATE STOCKS are down -3 million bbl since start of year compared with -1 million bbl in 2017 and 10-year seasonal average of -4 million bbl"
also
"US REFINERY THROUGHPUT was +418,000 b/d above 2017 level and +1.2 million b/d above 10-year seasonal average"
So personally I am guessing we just aren't importing as much gas from Europe as we were last winter. Therefore the difference is coming out of inventory so the majors don't see a lot of price improvement in the near future. More evidence that global supply demand is getting closer to balance. I don't know if or how the weaker dollar would effect the margins on dollar denominated oil refined in euro land then resold here. I do know the weaker dollar must make gas a better deal around the non-dollar world adding to demand.

cats i really appreciate when you post various stuff from the twitterverse, especially oil, which seems to be THE driver these days...
it's helpful, thanks

idea for bottom pickers.....When retail buys puts en masse?
Looking at difference of retail versus institutional putcall volumes

No conclusions yet, but, relative to past spikes (retail put buying) Feb lws saw not much spike...

With the added volatility, software upgrades and working on my Hawaiian sun burn I have been ignoring the RT. Plan to put charts together this weekend after the roll.

Somebody would have a world beater if they sold a filter for Zero hedge that eliminated the politics and doomer porn. They keep showing that the smalls are a very good proxy for the Bloomberg most shorted index. I think what happens is RISK ON the hedge funds go into RT because of the high volatility, using it like an afterburner to boost the move on their portfolio. Not sure if they use it as a hedge for their longer term holds during RISK OFF as out of the money puts have been shown by Taleb and others to be cost effective. Bullish bias has made calls uber pricey for a long time. The real issue for me is the low volume means a few heavy hitters can easily move the index for several days. When you catch the moves it is a beautiful thing. But when it gets range bound my system gets chopped up much more than in the ES, and the flat periods seem to last longer. You see the volatility in the margin requirements.

Watching this triangle this morning...

TICKs still hanging above their MA lines...

Nice trip down through VWAP and right back up again. I really hate top say it MAGIC NUMBER TIME in the ES today's high is the Pivot Point ES 2723.

I gladly pay Cobra for his opinion, I read several blogs, watch you tube presentations etc with expensive fancy software, wave counts you name it and still, several times a week the Magic Numbers of traders floor pivots work.

@ Al_Dente

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, Dr AL, for your reply late last night about plotting multiple charting types

Peaking thru the bottom side, will it be a head fake???

hate being positioned opposite KingSnake intraday trade ....but sweated out my shorts yester afternoon because of this up/dpwn MA volume crossover,

never much buyside volume when we move higher...

tsf wrote:@ Al_Dente

THANK YOU VERY MUCH, Dr AL, for your reply late last night about plotting multiple charting types

te_fern wrote:Peaking thru the bottom side, will it be a head fake???

u r back

2710 appears the next level of support....

Al_Dente wrote:

te_fern wrote:Peaking thru the bottom side, will it be a head fake???

u r back

Yes sir!! Had a nice trip and now trying to get my head back into the game!!

We took a cruise down around South America and then thru the panama canal. Very interesting. Limited internet though. Spent a lot of time thinking about how to improve my trading!! LOL!! We can see if it worked in2018!

2704 next... Leaning short today with the Pretzel Logic crowd.....

tim-follows wrote:hate being positioned opposite KingSnake intraday trade ....but sweated out my shorts yester afternoon because of this up/dpwn MA volume crossover,

never much buyside volume when we move higher...

updownvolcrossover.png

sooo......... could u elaborate - just a little bit - exactly how u use these charts
thanks

renewed selling so might test the day low.

fehro wrote:gaps not pretty… buckle up… testing yLOD resistance.. gap downs… mind the SPX 20d 2700.00 it goes.. look for a possible very large range day down.

VERY Key time nears 2700ish SPX 20d .. SPY 20d 269.85 next 20w 267.85

As fehro said, now it gets interesting... New low for the day....