Cobra's Market View

big spike VIX 20 HOD

The approx overnight low in the ES was 2680. Can we get down to there today??? TWC probably has a more exact low...

te_fern wrote:The approx overnight low in the ES was 2680. Can we get down to there today??? TWC probably has a more exact low...

AAPL takes out pink line.. look for an increase in speed down… SPX /SPY will loose 20ds

SPX broken box, target near roughly 2680
FWIW, grain-of-salt
15m

Pasta Boss, weren't you mentioning oil this morning?? The 11:00 numbers must have been pretty bad for oil....

te_fern wrote:Pasta Boss, weren't you mentioning oil this morning?? The 11:00 numbers must have been pretty bad for oil....

Yup
Awaiting new appointment to replace Cohn, all the other news out there, few other than cats have noticed that the market lately has just been oil’s bitch.
I don't get it, but price is real, so i have to "get it"

Appears 2704 held for now.....

Everybody here loves the smalls rally EXCEPT the smalls-options traders (inverted here)
Daily

as per yesterday's H&S vs invs H&S .. or yellow triangle .. SPY 5m fwiw

AAPL weighting update:
3/6/18
AAPL is 11.44% of QQQ (its #1 weighted stock, note in early Feb it was 10.6% of Q).
AAPL is 3.88% of SPY (its #1 weighted stock, note in early Feb it was 3.81%)
AAPL is 4.89% of the dow (its #6 weighted stock, note in early Feb it was 4.3%)

Pasta Boss, we took a cruise down around South America and then thru the panama canal. Very interesting. Limited internet though. Spent a lot of time thinking about how to improve my trading!! LOL!! We can see if it worked in 2018!

te_fern wrote:Pasta Boss, we took a cruise down around South America and then thru the panama canal. Very interesting. Limited internet though. Spent a lot of time thinking about how to improve my trading!! LOL!! We can see if it worked in 2018!

double bottom text book target, it has chances.

Cohn will be on Bloomberg at 4:00 ET

Fave 15m SWING chart, opened up to 20 days, smalls
Overbought (pink) can last a minute or four+ days
No signal until it drops below 80 ….... even then it can knock around a bit and whipsaw
So, always better for me to use price (higher lows, etc)

Al: for updown ma crossovers, this is two hour period, prefer to be short when all line up south, AFTER a big spike higher.....yesterday close was right around the level....at this point looks bearish still unless flood of new buying brings ratio back to 1:17 (blue line)
All the pops yesterday and today in Spy just feel like stop-running....

Al_Dente wrote:Cohn will be on Bloomberg at 4:00 ET

always after market aarrrgghh...these tariffs are really idiotic, hard to believe. trump backs off tomorrow/friday, market pops. he doubles down, takes market with it,...jobs report to boot. unfortunately , good odds on idiocy these days...
is bitcoin leading the market??

tim-follows wrote:Al: for updown ma crossovers, this is two hour period, prefer to be short when all line up south, AFTER a big spike higher.....yesterday close was right around the level....at this point looks bearish still unless flood of new buying brings ratio back to 1:17 (blue line)
All the pops yesterday and today in Spy just feel like stop-running....

thanks boss
Off topic:
Beige book was released at 2:00 ET
Jan consumer credit change to be released at 3:00 ET (what? why at 3 today?)
Cohn yaps at 4 ET
Initial jobless claims tomorrow b4 the open

For the record I am not the only one who thinks this has been a very unusual day.Up down up in 20 plus point swings. Still way more reasonable than overnight with a 42 point drop, then a 23.50 run up followed by a flat top wedge finally busted by 5 points only to drop back into the zone for the US open. All driven by news and second guessing what the government of the US will do and what every other government will do back.

And here I am amazed by it all when I recall the 100 plus point swings during the financial crisis. Well the big thing is what Jessie Livermore said, "the tape doesn't care" and guess what, 100 years later it still doesn't.

HAPPY HOUR