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03/12/2018 Live Update

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:32 pm

A few days back, the 10yr Yield hit 2.94% ($TNX 29.43, near enough to the expected 30.00 panic button).
So, as credit tightened, the market crashed.
Oh wait, no it didn’t, sorry, never mind.

So, we watch Yields and get scared by the data on equity outFLOWS, and destructive tweets.
This is known as ‘MISDIRECTION” in “Three-card Monte” and other classic con games.
btw: You/we are “The Mark.”

Keep it real: corporate borrowing costs at 3% are historically low. Pull up a daily chart of $TNX and see as recently as last year 3% yield was not the end of the world.
The reality is that GS (and other majors) know ON A DAILY BASIS how active their Buyback Desk is, and I surmise that it’s much more lucrative than their Trading Desk, so they keep it opaque, and only disclose it after the fact, every once in a rare while….

GS continues to play the Shell Game, with their exotic matrixes and charts and “analysis”.
Now they raise the crisis point from 3% to 4% yield.
Above 4% “… would require substantial Fed tightening from current levels and/or inflation expectations well above the 2% target – would … lead to lower equity valuations.” [GS, Kostin]
Their real view can seldom be found in plain sight, amid all their esoteric bullshit:
“new S&P all time highs imminent.” [GS]
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:56 pm

Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button

Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.

Slow steady rises in rates tend to produce a slow bleeding effect on PEs of stocks--whatever the base level they are rising from. Each investor has their own personal yield level that starts becoming "attractive".
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:07 pm

mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow… if we don't close strong
Last edited by fehro on Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby q2model » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:12 pm

fehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.


What is the reason? Thanks
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby fehro » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:13 pm

q2model wrote:
fehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.


What is the reason? Thanks


patterns short term, INDU TRANS <50d SMA, bonds strong, VIXes strong
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:14 pm

double bottom, the low might be in for today.
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:18 pm

Daniel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button

Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.

Slow steady rises in rates tend to produce a slow bleeding effect on PEs of stocks--whatever the base level they are rising from. Each investor has their own personal yield level that starts becoming "attractive".

:D
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby tim-follows » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:36 pm

Suppose someboby gets cute with NKorea tweets and China feels the twitterPrez might botch it....

The BOC could always could always state they dont buy TSY anymore, and 4% would appear quickly


Al_Dente wrote:A few days back, the 10yr Yield hit 2.94% ($TNX 29.43, near enough to the expected 30.00 panic button).
So, as credit tightened, the market crashed.
Oh wait, no it didn’t, sorry, never mind.

So, we watch Yields and get scared by the data on equity outFLOWS, and destructive tweets.
This is known as ‘MISDIRECTION” in “Three-card Monte” and other classic con games.
btw: You/we are “The Mark.”

Keep it real: corporate borrowing costs at 3% are historically low. Pull up a daily chart of $TNX and see as recently as last year 3% yield was not the end of the world.
The reality is that GS (and other majors) know ON A DAILY BASIS how active their Buyback Desk is, and I surmise that it’s much more lucrative than their Trading Desk, so they keep it opaque, and only disclose it after the fact, every once in a rare while….

GS continues to play the Shell Game, with their exotic matrixes and charts and “analysis”.
Now they raise the crisis point from 3% to 4% yield.
Above 4% “… would require substantial Fed tightening from current levels and/or inflation expectations well above the 2% target – would … lead to lower equity valuations.” [GS, Kostin]
Their real view can seldom be found in plain sight, amid all their esoteric bullshit:
“new S&P all time highs imminent.” [GS]
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:58 pm


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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Postby Cobra » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:00 pm

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp
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