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03/12/2018 Live Update

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Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

A few days back, the 10yr Yield hit 2.94% ($TNX 29.43, near enough to the expected 30.00 panic button).
So, as credit tightened, the market crashed.
Oh wait, no it didn’t, sorry, never mind.

So, we watch Yields and get scared by the data on equity outFLOWS, and destructive tweets.
This is known as ‘MISDIRECTION” in “Three-card Monte” and other classic con games.
btw: You/we are “The Mark.”

Keep it real: corporate borrowing costs at 3% are historically low. Pull up a daily chart of $TNX and see as recently as last year 3% yield was not the end of the world.
The reality is that GS (and other majors) know ON A DAILY BASIS how active their Buyback Desk is, and I surmise that it’s much more lucrative than their Trading Desk, so they keep it opaque, and only disclose it after the fact, every once in a rare while….

GS continues to play the Shell Game, with their exotic matrixes and charts and “analysis”.
Now they raise the crisis point from 3% to 4% yield.
Above 4% “… would require substantial Fed tightening from current levels and/or inflation expectations well above the 2% target – would … lead to lower equity valuations.” [GS, Kostin]
Their real view can seldom be found in plain sight, amid all their esoteric bullshit:
“new S&P all time highs imminent.” [GS]
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Daniel
Posts: 3482
Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:27 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button
Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.

Slow steady rises in rates tend to produce a slow bleeding effect on PEs of stocks--whatever the base level they are rising from. Each investor has their own personal yield level that starts becoming "attractive".
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow… if we don't close strong
Last edited by fehro on Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
q2model
Posts: 336
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:54 am

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by q2model »

fehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.
What is the reason? Thanks
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

q2model wrote:
fehro wrote:mind a possible big move down near close.. or sizeable gap down tomorrow.
What is the reason? Thanks
patterns short term, INDU TRANS <50d SMA, bonds strong, VIXes strong
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Cobra
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Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

double bottom, the low might be in for today.
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Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Daniel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:...near enough to the expected panic button
Indeed. "Expected panic button" is kind of an 'oxymoron'. Esp. w investing, where genuine anticipations get discounted in advance.

Slow steady rises in rates tend to produce a slow bleeding effect on PEs of stocks--whatever the base level they are rising from. Each investor has their own personal yield level that starts becoming "attractive".
:D
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
tim-follows
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:02 am

Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by tim-follows »

Suppose someboby gets cute with NKorea tweets and China feels the twitterPrez might botch it....

The BOC could always could always state they dont buy TSY anymore, and 4% would appear quickly

Al_Dente wrote:A few days back, the 10yr Yield hit 2.94% ($TNX 29.43, near enough to the expected 30.00 panic button).
So, as credit tightened, the market crashed.
Oh wait, no it didn’t, sorry, never mind.

So, we watch Yields and get scared by the data on equity outFLOWS, and destructive tweets.
This is known as ‘MISDIRECTION” in “Three-card Monte” and other classic con games.
btw: You/we are “The Mark.”

Keep it real: corporate borrowing costs at 3% are historically low. Pull up a daily chart of $TNX and see as recently as last year 3% yield was not the end of the world.
The reality is that GS (and other majors) know ON A DAILY BASIS how active their Buyback Desk is, and I surmise that it’s much more lucrative than their Trading Desk, so they keep it opaque, and only disclose it after the fact, every once in a rare while….

GS continues to play the Shell Game, with their exotic matrixes and charts and “analysis”.
Now they raise the crisis point from 3% to 4% yield.
Above 4% “… would require substantial Fed tightening from current levels and/or inflation expectations well above the 2% target – would … lead to lower equity valuations.” [GS, Kostin]
Their real view can seldom be found in plain sight, amid all their esoteric bullshit:
“new S&P all time highs imminent.” [GS]
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Cobra
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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Cobra
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Re: 03/12/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

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