03/15/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

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No idea up or down here but the bottom might be near if not already in.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Overnight low is 3 points below yesterday's low.
The island top hasn't happened but the gap fill is now within the daily trading range. Since yesterday's volume profile was consistent with longer time frame traders liquidating I think the gap could be closed. Then it is triple witch tomorrow so maybe that would be the better day.

[te_fern]

Need the range to break for something to happen....

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

From Javier Blas on twitter- Showing how the Saudi's have been moving more oil to markets that don't show up in the weekly inventory reports and less to the ones that do.

Come on here people, it is the same crooked game they have played all along. When the new guy strips his cousins of their money for the good of the kingdom while buying a palace in France and the worlds second or third largest yacht it is not a new day in the kingdom. When they continue to cut but not really it is not a new day in the oil market. Only thing new is the hedge fund guys who have come of age during the central bank asset bubble and don't realize who's word is sand and who's is gold.

When the next recession hits the US and Europe demand for oil will drop. Nigeria and the middle east will be devastated. As Gary Shilling wrote decades ago the state owned producers will up production to maintain government revenue. But the marginal producers, the Shale industry, have been locking in prices and will reduce production slowly as a result. By then the Chinese army will have taken over the Venezuelan fields and they will be producing again. So eventually ka boom heading back towards 25.

[Trades with cats]

Things are so flat that little three point impulsive up move looked exciting to the oscillator. Wondering if the big boys are waiting for a bit better price before they resume their selling, if they are going to.

[te_fern]

Sitting on my hands trying not to anticipate what the market is going to do......

[Al_Dente]

Smalls target is third push down, at the bottom of the red-line-channel down
that would be about 74 on TNA
we'll see.....
15 min

[Trades with cats]

Back to VWAP

[Al_Dente]

CURIOUS:
The dow $INDU is still below its 50-day-moving average
Most everyone else is above

[fehro]

SPX holds 50d SMA at LOD .. still open gap just under.. TLT at/near 50d… UUP DXY nears 50d .. 20d/50d key today

[Al_Dente]

Jan 26 when SPY made its high, roughly 84% of the its 500 stocks were on board (above 50ma).
Now its 54% (EOD, as of last night), still bull biased but the minute somebody drops below 50, look out.....
SPY "can’t" mount an assault on the old high without increased participation.
Daily chart

[te_fern]

TICKs still below their moving averages....

[fehro]

SPX holds 50d SMA at LOD .. still open gap just under.. TLT at/near 50d… UUP DXY nears 50d .. 20d/50d key today

SPX 50d 2748.07, yLOD goes.. looking for gap fill 2738, 20d 2734

[Daniel]

Breadth is weaker than price today on NYSE/Naz. Esp weak is NYSE advancers-- hovering at their LOD! IWM is about to break its lod.

Bears! Begin massaging your salivary glands, and prepare to salivate!

[Al_Dente]

Smalls target is third push down, at the bottom of the red-line-channel down
that would be about 74 on TNA
we'll see.....
15 min

same chart, zoomed in, with that little H&S noted yesterday drawn in
a bit sloppy
[edit: that cyan target is at the horizontal red-dashed line, which was the breakout zone.... bulls must hold that line]

[Trades with cats]

CURIOUS:
The dow $INDU is still below its 50-day-moving average
Most everyone else is above

Pretzel Charts monologue this morning on DOW hasn't gotten above February highs while the S&P has and the NAS is all time high. He says lack of liquidity. Says it is very meaningful since the DOW has been leading the S&P for most of this 9 year move. B of A Merrill said yesterday January and February were double the old record for buybacks and according to some they are 70% of the net new money over the last several years.

I am reading Jess Livermoores lightly fictionalized biography. A 100 years ago he was talking about how most people fail to turn paper profits into deposits into their bank account. My hunch is some of the big operators are following his advice. We saw that again yesterday. Up move stalled on Monday followed by two days of selling that let many get out well above the recent lows. Also the quarter end is coming and who knows what the pension funds will be forced to do by the changes in the bond market.

[Trades with cats]

ES 15 minute Bars, Relative Range, Relative Volume (10 days)

Slow day (duh) 75% of the 10 day average.

[Daniel]

Down vol still over up on both NYSE and Naz: 3/2 and 5/4 respectively. Price is still green tho.

Bit of concern to bears-- while up/down volume has stayed about constant the past half hour, issues advancing has been creeping upward...