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03/15/2018 Live Update

fehro
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by fehro »

fehro wrote:
fehro wrote:SPX holds 50d SMA at LOD .. still open gap just under.. TLT at/near 50d… UUP DXY nears 50d .. 20d/50d key today
SPX 50d 2748.07, yLOD goes.. looking for gap fill 2738, 20d 2734
RUT the weakest.. nears LOD..it goes look to Fri's open gap.. better support at 1560.. 20d.50d curling up to that level as well by tomorrow.

It's all oil.. every time indexes "weaken" oil pushes us up.. oil rolls.. look out below big time indexes… DXY USDollar on the verge of break out EURUSD daily looking weak.. mind the a US dollar pop
DXY takes out 90.08 50d look to Aug low 91ish then 20w 91.50ish
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Fed tightening.png
From twitter- author acknowledged Ned Davis Research for the concept.
Concept is sensible. Sort Fed tightening cycles into fast and slow. Normalize the market response to 100% then average the groups to create two 'typical response' charts.
Current tightening cycle is part of the slow group.

Now go read the newest public consumption missive from JP Morgan up at Zerohedge. Then decide for long term holdings "Should I stay or should I go" :)
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Saw the Dollar and Gold chart for today that makes Larry Kudlow a one day wonder. Don't get me wrong, I think he is an old school gentleman, but he is garbage at forecasting. :)
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

[for MrMiyagi]
thanks very much boss :D :D
etf.com shows SPY has only 5% energy weighting, so I’m confused...
315energy weight.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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MrMiyagi
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Post by MrMiyagi »

Al_Dente wrote:[for MrMiyagi]thanks very much boss :D :D
etf.com shows SPY has only 5% energy weighting, so I’m confused...
Got my data from RBC, others seem to have different percentages so you may be right, let's say it is 6% to 12% and call it a day.
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

I am confused also. I thought most of the pipelines were spun off as MLPs or something like that when Kinder Morgan decided to cash in. Sold them to yield hungry retiree's looking for a tax dodge. So I assumed they would not show up in any index since an MLP is not a stock.
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

It would look like a double bottom here if the market could go up.
Daniel
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

fehro wrote:RUT the weakest.. nears LOD..it goes look to Fri's open gap.
IWM clinging to 157, it's just a 50 cent run to that gap fill... looks very tempting, am starting to salivate...
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Al_Dente
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Re:

Post by Al_Dente »

MrMiyagi wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:[for MrMiyagi]thanks very much boss :D :D
etf.com shows SPY has only 5% energy weighting, so I’m confused...
Got my data from RBC, others seem to have different percentages so you may be right, let's say it is 6% to 12% and call it a day.
BOSS: NOW THAT MAKES TWICE AS MUCH SENSE
No, you must be right because oil has been jerking the market up and down, usually leading
We’ve been commenting on it almost every day. At 5% weight it makes no sense
At 12.75% it makes much more sense
btw: what is RBC?
THANK YOU THANK YOU :D :D
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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MrMiyagi
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Post by MrMiyagi »

Al_Dente wrote:No, you must be right because oil has been jerking the market up and down, usually leading
We’ve been commenting on it almost every day. At 5% weight it makes no sense
At 12.75% it makes much more sense
That could be correct, SPX does respond to energy readily.
btw: what is RBC?
THANK YOU THANK YOU :D :D
Royal Bank of Canada.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Here’s oil lined up with SPX on the SWING 15m chart
In any event, TECH (bottom panel) is still the BIG GORILLA at 26% weight (etf.com)
(and Miyagi has the “information” sector at 23.58% weight)
But the takeaway is: we shall now give oil TWICE as much respect as we did before
315oil spx qqq.png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Yesterday's close meant nothing but the second it touched the 1 hour opening range low all kinds of stuff started happening.
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Cobra
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

don't think support would hold as it's been tested many times.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

BREAKING:
Mueller just subpoenaed “Trump Org”
Seeking Russia documents
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

"Once more into the gap dear friends" misquoting Shakespeare.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

ok smalls, now is your chance to fill that gap from 9 march
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Al_Dente
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Trades with cats wrote:"Once more into the gap dear friends" misquoting Shakespeare.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :o
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Cobra
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

breakdown as expected. now I have a dream.
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Thanks Pasta Boss
You saved me from having a swelled head and thinking I actually knew what I was doing when I put that short on 15 minutes ago!
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Re: 03/15/2018 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Dancing on top of the overnight low which is ES 2745.
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