03/16/2018 Live Update

[Trades with cats]

Markets close early today? Seems like everything but smalls decided to stop moving.

Quad Witch, what else can you say.

[Al_Dente]

“An index of 10 tech growth shares pushed its advance to 23 percent so far this year, giving the group an annualized return since early 2016 of 67 percent. That frenzied pace tops the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 66 percent return in the final two years of the dot-com bubble.”
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/article ... ech-frenzy

Did you notice: they're comparing the last two years to the final two years of the dot com bubble. You can choose whatever timeframe fits your narrative.
ok whatever
Here’s YEAR-TO-DATE performance of those TOP TEN TECH:

[Al_Dente]

[add on]
Know that the star NFLX (brown) is only 1.4% of QQQ weighting, while AAPL (lime) is weighted at 11.4% of QQQ

[Daniel]

XLK is flat on the day. Market will need some push from big tech to get going. QQQ is still inside the range of its opening 15min bar (OR-15)

..and now breaking to the downside, price below the 15min 20/50period emas and heading directly twd gap fill.

[Cobra]

the pullback will be bought.

[te_fern]

The first resistance pivot is proving tough to overcome....

[Al_Dente]

Kolanovic is JPM’s “Gandalf”
predicts the S&P 500 will reach record highs “soon.”
the risk of a global trade war is “very low”
3/14
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/article ... -2015-path

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:50 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Saved by the bell
Yesterday, these guys were very near to crossing into the bear’s den
Today they’re okay……. Stay tuned
daily

[Al_Dente]

ummmmm....... hello oil...........

[Trades with cats]

Battle of the titans, Round 2

Refresher, first go around Gandalf said all was good just before the sell off. Zerohedge mocked him at the time asking if someone higher up had tapped him on the shoulder to have a word about the forecasts. Harnett, who Pasta Boss has properly downgraded as a perpetual doomer, and from our trading time frame I am in 100% agreement, called the fall the day before. So he won round one with a knockout.

Round 2 Has Started
Both have short term outlooks out this week for the general public, easily found at Zerohedge. This time Marko Kolanovic and the team at JP Morgan are debated getting out early or staying in the market for a top. Their foregone conclusion is we have no more than 36 months. Michael Harnett and the team at B of A Merrill are looking at cash flows, as usual. They easily explain what is going on with small caps, tech and banking as Duh, money is pouring in. Frightening to me is the very large flows of what has to be hot money thundering into ETFs. They don't look at buybacks in this piece. They think the hot money has run back in positioning for a really good earnings season.

Eventually revision to the mean will happen with per share earnings because no trees grow to the sky. When it does that hot money is going to get us another big downdraft. I don't know if this is the quarter or not, but I think when it does happen it will seriously break this market.

[Trades with cats]

That bell was rung in Europe. Overnight high, about a half hour before New York opened is currently VWAP and the current price. US market is a worthless limp noodle today.

[K447]

That bell was rung in Europe...

Europe not yet on daylight savings clock, correct?

So still open until 12:30pm in New York DST

[Al_Dente]

Boss Cat:
I don’t remember calling BofA’s Harnett a “permanent doomster”
It’s just that they obsessed over negative outFLOWS for month(s), then finally said geeeee it was buybacks that absorbed all that neg flow…. and that delay pizzed me off, so I put them and their FLOWS on my “grain of salt” list.

[Al_Dente]

2min
SPX just failed at the BOX top
IWM filled the gap and met the target on the H&S
QQQ, the gorilla, now at knock-FOUR-times at the gap… BOX

[Trades with cats]

Sorry, he has been banging the drum for a down tern for ever, his Icarus theory. I had forgotten the cash flow part as my eyes start to glaze over when they pull out those tables showing flows by etf type.

In any event until recently his predictions were undistinguished and without merit from the perspective of our time frame.

[Al_Dente]

IWM swing
Premature, too soon to tell, but Bulkowski believes that by the time you’re sure it’s a “V” formation, it’s usually too late
http://thepatternsite.com/vtopbot.html

[Al_Dente]

“Credit Suisse is advising clients to hold 45 percent in equities… favoring emerging markets, the euro zone and the technology sector.”
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/article ... se-advises

[Trades with cats]

Second try at the open/Pivot Point with yesterday's close just below.

[Al_Dente]

QQQ daily
That’s not just a gap and a little box, it’s a critical test of the breakout zone
BUT CHECK THAT VOLUME after the close……. Is anybody selling????