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03/17/2018 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Down 1 week, the next week has 62% chances to close up.
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Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Trades with cats »

As Cobra has reminded us many times the new low is revisited

Late July 2011
13% drop, 4 false breakouts, then lower low 1st week October
then recovery to new highs

Early May, 2012
8.71% drop , recover a third, lower low, recovered 5%
then higher low early June and on up from there

Mid Aug 2015
11.27% drop, 6% recovery, higher low, higher bounce
drop to between two previous lows, 10.2 % recovery by mid-October
14.3% drop early December, 7% recovery mid-January
double bottom late January then off to new highs

More infrequently the following happens-
A quick drop to correction territory (10 to 20%)
a solid bounce back, then a drop to new lows within 7 days
Followed by a sickening drop into a new bear market
price change is % of high

25-Aug-87
Days 18 10 7 4
Price Change -7.79 5.65 -5.7 -28.51
16-Sep-29
Days 14 4 7 22
Price Change -10.08 7.5 -7.6 -42


26-Jan-18
Days 9 22 7
Price Change -10.16 7.96 NA

Paraphrased from
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/com ... o-be-alert

Personally, I find this sort of thing interesting reading. But two data points is
pretty skinny and we would need a solid 7.4% decline in three days. So it
isn't realistic unless the bus crashes off the bridge.
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Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Trades with cats wrote:As Cobra has reminded us many times the new low is revisited

Late July 2011
13% drop, 4 false breakouts, then lower low 1st week October
then recovery to new highs

Early May, 2012
8.71% drop , recover a third, lower low, recovered 5%
then higher low early June and on up from there

Mid Aug 2015
11.27% drop, 6% recovery, higher low, higher bounce
drop to between two previous lows, 10.2 % recovery by mid-October
14.3% drop early December, 7% recovery mid-January
double bottom late January then off to new highs

More infrequently the following happens-
A quick drop to correction territory (10 to 20%)
a solid bounce back, then a drop to new lows within 7 days
Followed by a sickening drop into a new bear market
price change is % of high

25-Aug-87
Days 18 10 7 4
Price Change -7.79 5.65 -5.7 -28.51
16-Sep-29
Days 14 4 7 22
Price Change -10.08 7.5 -7.6 -42


26-Jan-18
Days 9 22 7
Price Change -10.16 7.96 NA

Paraphrased from
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/com ... o-be-alert

Personally, I find this sort of thing interesting reading. But two data points is
pretty skinny and we would need a solid 7.4% decline in three days. So it
isn't realistic unless the bus crashes off the bridge.
There're some chances the low was revisited overnight by futures (you can see beautiful double bottom on ES), so now only 51% chances of revisiting the low.

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tsf
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 7:49 am

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

Hello everyone,

Have you found the paid versions of RRG charts add much value to your trading decisions
e.g. give you an edge on sector rotation, or better guess next moves up or down,
strength and direction, etc?

Thank you
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Trades with cats »

ES 06-18 (1000 Tick) 2018_03_16.png
Last 10 minutes of Friday, this is with 1,000 trades per bar tick bars with the bars drawn when they happen, NOT equal spacing. I am sure we have had more dramatic closes, but after such a quiet day the volatility explosion was defining. :D No idea if it is meaningful or not.

Side note, regular futures trade until 15 minutes past the hour but usually go close to overnight volume. Overnight, or GLOBEX typically runs 10% of Pit Trading hours volume. Anyway you can see that by 4:01 Eastern everybody was done.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by fehro »

SPX wedge fwiw.
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fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 03/17/2018 Weekend Update

Post by fehro »

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