03/19/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

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No idea up or down from here, I don't see serious bears though.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

Mind the possible islands SPX COMPQ NDX

[Trades with cats]

FT 71 said this morning that the second drop (creating those islands) happened just after 3 am Chicago, but the Facebook news didn't hit until 3:30 ish, for what ever that is worth.

ES still 4 points above the overnight lows. My system says sell but price isn't going anywhere, so when in doubt, listen to price.

[fehro]

Mind the possible islands SPX COMPQ NDX

INDU <20d/50d SPX <20d NDX COMPQ test 20d .. VIX nears 20d >50d FANG stocks =25% of Nasdaq.. fwiw

[te_fern]

Broke my support line, another bearish start..... Can we climb back into the diagonals??

[fehro]

Mind the possible islands SPX COMPQ NDX

INDU <20d/50d SPX <20d NDX COMPQ test 20d .. VIX nears 20d >50d FANG stocks =25% of Nasdaq.. fwiw

SPY 20d 272.54 key 50d 273.51 - 20w next key lower 268.95

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am $SPY $SPX $ES_F
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

bias is down but it's not broad based selling.

[Trades with cats]

Can't get past VWAP , but not going lower. Maybe we wait for European markets to close at half past the hour. Traders all know that opening print has to be retaken or the lunch time retail crowd may regret their all in move last week!

[Trades with cats]

I don't follow bond markets, guess I better start as they are saying everything from LIBOR to the 10 year is at a new post crisis high.

[K447]

... they are saying everything from LIBOR to the 10 year is at a new post crisis high.

Which crisis?

There have been so many, I sometimes lose track

[Daniel]

From Briefing.com:
The 2-yr yield is up two basis points at 2.31%, which marks its highest level since September 2008. Investors will not receive any economic data today or tomorrow, giving them ample time to prepare for the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch Tool is placing the chances of a rate hike at 94.4%.

[Daniel]

Both SPY and QQQ are testing their 20day MAs after having hit the upper bollyband. According to Bollinger, this is often a “rallying point”; and if not, then full extension to the lower band becomes a high probability.

[Trades with cats]

Double bottom on the overnight low would be timely.

[Trades with cats]

Both SPY and QQQ are testing their 20day MAs after having hit the upper bollyband. According to Bollinger, this is often a “rallying point”; and if not, then full extension to the lower band becomes a high probability.

Karma! Twitter feed showing record retail inflows into NASDAQ last week.
That is one of Bob Farrel's 10 rules, to paraphrase badly 'the general public tends to buy the most at the top and sell the most at the bottom'

[fehro]

Double bottom on the overnight low would be timely.

testing uptrend from the Feb lows red dots.. .. doesn't hold..look out below.

[Daniel]

FB is the 'crisis du jour', and showing its bearish FANGs, down over 6% at the worst this AM.
Currently, bouncing off its lower bollyband and down only 5%...

[Al_Dente]

QQQ: TOP TEN WEIGHTED STOCKS, as of 3/16
Apple 11.38%
Amazon 9.43%
GOOG 4.94%
GOOGL 4.21%
Microsoft 9.09%
Facebook 5.05%
Intel 2.98%
Cisco 2.77%
Comcast 2.08
Nvidia 1.89%

TOTAL 53.82%
When 10% of the QQQ is 53.82% of the total weighting, that’s “Top Heavy.”
[And zh reported over the weekend that just Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, now account for “a staggering” 25% of the entire Nasdaq Composite].
Top ten YTD with FB in red:

[Daniel]

testing uptrend from the Feb lows (red dots)

That's a superb graphic Fehro. I've done a screengrab and framed it in my chart art gallery under the caption of "A clear downtrend in a clear longer-timeframe uptrend".

That red (dots) uptrend line is key--and the green channel lines clearly show the force and sustainability of the current downtrend. This move is leaving alot of ResistanceLines above it, as we now pass into the less seasonally-favorable second half of March. Dip buyers beware.