03/24/2018 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 64% chances to close up.

[brokebybernacke2]

Air pockets!
still have 27 1st target, 42 2nd target if it gets really crazy to hit on vix yet technically, STORMY weekend!

[cletus]

I don't understand why people are so gloomy about stocks. I see a fairly nicely formed M bottom on the chart for the S&P. Yes, it could (and probably will) extend further, but in the end the pattern is actually a bottom not a top. New all time highs will come, maybe not this year but definitely next year.

[Al_Dente]

Meet the Mueller team
Their biographies include experience with: The Mafia, “The Wolf of Wall Street” Jordan Belfort, Watergate, Enron, Medicare fraud schemes, New York City municipal fraud and kickback scheme, al-Qaeda terrorists, insider trading, food stamp fraud, wire fraud, and more.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/po ... index.html

[tsf]

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards
Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards Author, NY Times Bestsellers
Good quote for those minimizing the importance of a trade war:
"The trouble with war is that once started, it is unpredictable.
A shot across the bow can accidentally hit the ship
and trigger conflict even if both sides aren’t yet prepared to do battle

A US-China Trade War? Not So Fast
By Jacob L. Shapiro
Mar 23, 2018
https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?e=1b ... 9fae4f45de

The tariffs and penalties the U.S. is proposing apply to only about 10 percent of Chinese exports to the United States and just 2 percent of Chinese exports to the world. That is not exactly a scorched earth policy; in fact, it’s more like a slap on the wrist. But the U.S. is doing this because it has never forcefully pushed back against China, in large part because the U.S. has profited from cheap Chinese goods for the past three decades. In a negotiation, it is not always enough to simply point out your adversary’s vulnerabilities; sometimes, it is necessary to demonstrate how badly those vulnerabilities could hurt when they are exploited.

That is what the U.S. is doing here – it wants to reset the conversation with China on its own terms. And China does not have much choice but to go along. After all, Chinese President Xi Jinping is launching massive structural economic reforms that will necessarily lead to lower GDP growth rates, and that means China can ill afford a trade war that will lower those growth rates even further. If the U.S. were to raise tariffs on all Chinese exports, it could send the Chinese economy into crisis or, at the very least, force China to abandon its attempt to rein in stimulus spending and irresponsible credit growth, which would just delay the inevitable reckoning by a few years. That is why Xi has chosen to make his best two lieutenants – Wang Qishan and Liu He – responsible for China-U.S. relations. By doing so, Xi has revealed that he believes his fate depends more on careful management of Beijing’s relationship with Washington than on the ongoing purges that ensure loyalty at home.

[tsf]

https://twitter.com/paul_schatz?lang=en
Paul Schatz @Paul_Schatz award-winning personal investment management firm

Two phone calls from my tried and true perfect contrarians. Only one caller left. Haven't heard from the three since Feb 5 or 6 when they told me the bull mkt was over & 20%+ decline starting. Today, they confirmed Dow 20K & to sell everything. Hoping to hear from #3

We all know the third caller is Gartman, you don't have to pretend.

[brokebybernacke2]

I don't understand why people are so gloomy about stocks. I see a fairly nicely formed M bottom on the chart for the S&P. Yes, it could (and probably will) extend further, but in the end the pattern is actually a bottom not a top. New all time highs will come, maybe not this year but definitely next year.

No gloom ! - bears looking for a new low to buy (me!) - guess between yellow and orange lines -. Bulls depending on 200ma fake out. either way, should bounce good in time, except if the red line breaks imo. RSI showing early signs of bottoming of some sort...go NOVA!

[tsf]

Testing Moving Averages On Popular Stocks & ETFs
David Bergstrom

The main takeaway is that each stock and ETF has its own players and personalities.
Each security responds differently to technical environments.
It is crucial to understand if you should be buying dips or waiting for confirmation.

FOR MORE CHARTS and INFO, SEE
https://www.seeitmarket.com/testing-mov ... tfs-16809/

[Al_Dente]

NYSE “New-52-Week Lows” above 200 is a bear signal that often means a pullback is coming or is underway.
It seldom leads to a crash ….. but last time it did …
(see top panel, red box)

[Al_Dente]

Participation:
The “Percent of Stocks Above” 20/50ma is oversold, and at a spot where a bottom may be near, at least for a bounce….but they can always go lower…..
Note on the bottom panel, the Percent Above 200ma, a measure for the long-termers, stayed above 50% during the February rout. Friday it was 47%. The last time it was below 50% (other than for a brief moment in June 2016), was Aug and Dec 2015, which was correction time (not on this chart).
Refresher:
Percent Above 20ma is short term
Percent Above 50ma is medium term
Percent above 200ma is long term

[Al_Dente]

We watch the Bloomberg "Smart Money Index" whenever somebody with a Bloomberg terminal posts it.
This one if from “Knowledge Leaders Capital” via zh

[te_fern]

At least the futures aren't crashing, at least not yet....

[Trades with cats]

That smart money chart put together with money flows by customer types from Merrill would probably paint an interesting picture but my guess is the bottom line would not change.

Never ever forget the record level of corporate buybacks since the start of the year have not been enough to cover the selling. A primary function of buybacks is to shift executive compensation off the income statement. To keep everybody happy they do have to be sufficient to cover all the insider selling and some occasional dips as well as making sure the quarterly numbers are met. So with my simple thinking record buybacks means record insider selling or fast collapsing sales. Usually record buybacks are a guarantee that next quarter will show positive per share results. Underlying conditions and gross sales numbers will be ignored by the media. But media hocus pocus is really only for Ma and Pa Kettle and they went all in during the January 401K season. Be interesting to see if they double down on that bet in April. I bet Pa Kettle was in no hurry to show Ma the February month end statement.

I don't know what they will do to get that positive momentum back in time for April contributions. M<y guess is they pull out every bull rigging trick in the book to make a tired and aging bull look attractive just before we go into the summer selloff season. Time will tell but watch the first hour last hour volumes to see if the overnight rigging by goosing futures pays out like it has or fails like the last month.

[fehro]

first resistance zone 2617ish

[fehro]

Additionally, well over 23,000 contracts have traded within the first hour for a notional trading volume of over 10 billion yuan - more than $1.5 billion notional... signaling significant demand.



https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03- ... first-hour

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/article ... n-shanghai