08/30/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

Gap down but within yesterday's range plus yesterday was a Major Accumulation day which normally means the next day's gap if any will be filled. So hopefully the gap could be filled. Anyway, it's rare for the push up as strong as the past couple of days to fail right away, so I kind expect at least yesterday's high being tested some days later if not today. Let's wait and see.

[cougar]

Good morning, Cobra!
$VIX: a 30 min chart, presenting a combined EW count and short term time cycles (~4 wks).
One could first notice that a spectacular VIX rise started immediately after the completion of a second Inverted Head and Shoulder, and was accelerated after a cycle trough, which marked the beginning of the very impulsive w3 (gray) of W3 (yellow).
A VIX=27.7 low, around Sep 5, would mark a 100% extension of the “a” drop at the time of the projected next trough.
I do not expect a smooth and continuous decrease to that level. LOL!
The size of W5 is very hard to predict. Some people think that, following a very aggressive W3 and an extended W4, W5 should be truncated.

[uempel]

I'm intrigued by this green cycle, which is due Wednesday or Thursday. I'll try to "read" today's market, so that I know if the move will be up or down

[cougar]

Palladium time might be coming:

[rpccharts]

There was NO volume on Mondays move - suspect GOVT buy programs... No doubt this pump should fail back to last weeks lows...

[q2model]

Today's Economic Calendar
9.00 S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (est -0.1% m/m)
10.00 Consumer confidence index (est 50.0)
12.15 Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota (FOMC voter) speaks on economy in Bismarck, North Dakota
2.00 Minutes of FOMC meeting released; Fed's Evans Speaks to CNBC

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI: We expect the S&P Case-Shiller home price index to fall 0.1% m/m in June, continuing the decline in the index that began in late summer, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Consumer confidence index: We expect the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence to decline to 50.0 in August from 59.5 in July. We see the decline primarily reflecting the recent equity market declines and volatility, as well as the S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt following the debt ceiling negotiations. FOMC minutes: We look for the minutes of the August FOMC meeting to provide additional insight to the committee’s extraordinary decision to strengthen its policy rate guidance through the middle of 2013. We expect the minutes to show that participants revised down growth expectations for the remainder of this year, but still expect a recovery in the coming months as temporary factors relating to higher commodity prices and supply chain disruptions from the earthquake in Japan dissipate. We expect the minutes to provide some discussions that led to the decision to use policy rate guidance over additional asset purchases or other policy options, and additional details behind the dissents of Regional Fed Presidents Kocherlakota, Plosser, and Fisher. Finally, we look for the minutes to provide indication about how the committee sees the trade-off between further stimulus and its dual mandate in light of its downward revision to the outlook and trends in inflation.

[Mongoose]

Hi Cobra, what do you mean yesterday was a Major Accumulation day -- I interpret yesterday, with very light volume (suggesting short covering) as not a major accumulation day -- mainly a day traders are closing their positions. Would you help me understand what you mean by Major Accumulation? thanks.

[Cobra]

There was NO volume on Mondays move - suspect GOVT buy programs... No doubt this pump should fail back to last weeks lows...

volume doesn't matter for the past 2 years.

By the way, you can use "upload attachment" to post images. you can check "Getting Start" for how to do that.

[Cobra]

I'm intrigued by this green cycle, which is due Wednesday or Thursday. I'll try to "read" today's market, so that I know if the move will be up or down

GreenCycle.png

still short?

[Cobra]

the open.

[KENA]

FYI..The Dorsey Wright Point & Figure NYSEBP is now in the green along with several other indicators also green.Now we have an up trend for awhile.Don't fight the mkt.Just follow the trend.Now lets see how long this last change will take to reverse.The last 2 times it took 4-5 weeks. Lets see what Uemple has to say on his Green indicator.

[shumushu]

There was NO volume on Mondays move - suspect GOVT buy programs... No doubt this pump should fail back to last weeks lows...

doubting and suspecting are not legitimate trading strategies

[AK84]

PCLN Trade Follow-up

As noted yday, PCLN reached its C&H target of 513. As I mentioned, a clean break above 517 is another buy and this happened end of day yday. Target is now 535 ish.

GL!

[Michelle]

That's an interesting chart, Uempel.

Copper is strong this morning.

[Cobra]

forgot to say, Global ES looks like a Bull Flag, now it looks like a breakout so looks bullish.

[shumushu]

I covered the shorts from yesterday's close and went long right at the open for a gap fill.

Edit: doesn't look like its happening.

[uempel]

I'm intrigued by this green cycle, which is due Wednesday or Thursday. I'll try to "read" today's market, so that I know if the move will be up or down

GreenCycle.png

still short?

Yeah. I doubled the position at the close yesterday and covered half premarket when the mini was hanging out at 1199. Now I still have a quite small position with a better entry.

I'm extremely curious about tomorrow. There is going to be some wild move and I still don't know if it's up or down. Do you?

[silicon_beaver]

hold TZA. watching...

[Cobra]

well, now we know the pullback target.

[AK84]

well, now we know the pullback target.

would coincide nicely with the P-bar on the 5min chart yday at 118.5