08/31/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

Gap up at yesterday's high, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not. The Global ES may be at a key point as it can be seen as the 3 push up if the current push cannot make a decisive high, just a possibility, I have nothing to prove if indeed it's the 3 push up, so let's wait.

[pady]

Hi Cobra,

Do you update the board when the impulse system gives a signal during the trading day ? How does one get the signal themselves ?

Thanks

gd

[EvilTrader]

GM.

Amazing strenght !!

I will short around the open today. A correction is imminent. For the medium term, i guess more upside to come.

[AK84]

Good Morning !

Doesnt look like it will be a great day for me today! Sitting in a not so pretty position at the open. Good thing I am slightly hedged with SPY calls . Will adjust trades as the day goes on .

Looking for Dr. Evil to hit the market like a rock! Sep 1 is supposed to be mad bullish but if the mad man gaps up today , maybe it will crap out tom. Lets see.

My calls are getting to levels at where I have placed stops.....I may adjust these and reevaluate depending on price action coz I do not want to get stopped out at the open on a huge gap up.

GLTA!!

[AK84]

Chicago PMI @ 9.45
Factory orrders @ 10

Those even thinking of going long today , be careful . The market is v v overextended in the super short term (i'm sure most already know this).

[Anaconda]

GM.

Amazing strenght !!

I will short around the open today. A correction is imminent. For the medium term, i guess more upside to come.

I'm surprised, as well. I was quite sure we'd see a gap down today. I see three touches on the SPY and expected some pretty strong pullback. Looking at the hourly, ChiOsc is quite high, as well. Will have to see how things develop. I'm short and have learned a lot of other folks are too...that could be a bad sign.
GL.
A.

[cougar]

A concerted reversal of SPX and VIX was proposed here for ~September 6, with the help of independent analysis techniques.

Note: Sep 5 is Labor Day, not yet deleted from my charts…

==================
SPX should not enter the territory of W1( above 1258.07) If it does, this whole EW construct goes to the dogs! LOL!

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra,

Do you update the board when the impulse system gives a signal during the trading day ? How does one get the signal themselves ?

Thanks

gd

I just give day signal which is the day before and yesterday confirmed the entry. You have to decide the exact entry intraday when every time such a signal is given.

[Mongoose]

Cobra, I was reviewing yesterdays Intraday Watering and had some questions, which as a student of your forum would like your help -- You mentioned at one point in the day you didnt think there was going to be a breakout, based on the data. Then about an hour later you wrote the breakout occurred as you expected. This seems contradictory.
Then there was the comment about the Cup & Handle pattern forming which you thought it would continue into today. At the close of yesterday, based on the data, it suggested there could be a pullback as the market appears to be overbought. This also seems contradictory.
It seems as if the data is suggesting "the market is going to go up, unless it goes down", or "the market is going to go down, unless it goes up".
If you wouldnt mind taking a minute or two and helping me to understand these contradictions. Thanks.

[cougar]

$VIX

[FrancRap]

I am short too, at Dax and Nasdaq100, but i see too many people thinking the same way, not a good sign indeed...

[Cobra]

GM.

Amazing strenght !!

I will short around the open today. A correction is imminent. For the medium term, i guess more upside to come.

I'm surprised, as well. I was quite sure we'd see a gap down today. I see three touches on the SPY and expected some pretty strong pullback. Looking at the hourly, ChiOsc is quite high, as well. Will have to see how things develop. I'm short and have learned a lot of other folks are too...that could be a bad sign.
GL.
A.

I'm surprised too, although I knew got to be a retest of the yesterday's high but still I'm surprised, with T2122 that high, I really don't think the market could go higher but, well, anything is possible, you know nowadays all bulls need are imagination.

[Cobra]

I am short too, at Dax and Nasdaq100, but i see too many people thinking the same way, not a good sign indeed...

hmm, bad sign indeed...

[q2model]

Today's Economic Calendar
8.15 ADP private payrolls (cons 100k)
9.45 Chicago PMI (est. 53.0)

10.00 Factory orders (est 1.4 %m/m)

12.30 Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks on the economy to Lafayette Chamber of Commerce, Louisiana



Chicago PMI: The Chicago PMI has taken a significantly stronger tone than other regional indices in recent months, with a reading of 58.8 in July. We expect this stronger tone to persist in August, although given the significant weakening in the Empire State and the Philadelphia Fed surveys we have penciled in a fairly sharp decline to 53.0.Factory orders: We expect factory orders to increase 1.4% in July, reflecting the reported 4.0% jump in the durables component and our forecast for a 0.6% decline in the nondurables component. The latter reflects the softer tone to real demand growth, which is partly offset by gains in some nondurable goods prices, particularly energy.

[kenwind]

Despite an abrupt drop in prices at Tuesday's cash close for the ESU1 contract from yesterday's daily high (1218.50), prices have rebounded in the overnight session and have stabilized above 1215.00. The short-term price pattern remains constructive with an upside price target at 1232.00 but intermediate resistance at 1220.00. The pre-open Globex session experienced a point of acceleration as it rebounded above 1210.00 which should continue to provide support through today's regular trading hours session. Today's session marks the end of the month which should provide some interesting rebalance flows targeted for the cash close. The significant divergence between equity and bond performance over the month suggest the potential for asset allocation into equities and out of bonds. There has been evidence for those types of flows since the August low but its worth noting that as funds build their equity exposure via index futures throughout the month, they will often sell futures at month end and replace the equity exposure with cash equities creating temporary divergence at the cash close between the cash index and the index futures.

[Cobra]

Cobra, I was reviewing yesterdays Intraday Watering and had some questions, which as a student of your forum would like your help -- You mentioned at one point in the day you didnt think there was going to be a breakout, based on the data. Then about an hour later you wrote the breakout occurred as you expected. This seems contradictory.
Then there was the comment about the Cup & Handle pattern forming which you thought it would continue into today. At the close of yesterday, based on the data, it suggested there could be a pullback as the market appears to be overbought. This also seems contradictory.
It seems as if the data is suggesting "the market is going to go up, unless it goes down", or "the market is going to go down, unless it goes up".
If you wouldnt mind taking a minute or two and helping me to understand these contradictions. Thanks.

I think I said I didn't expect it to breakout immediately which implies a breakout, but it just need a consolidation and indeed, after a few bars consolidation, it broke out.

The C&H was short of the target and ended when the day ended because the pullback was below the breakout point. Even it can continue today, it doesn't contradict the pullback call because it could go higher than fall back.

Anything have time frame. I cannot mention time frame every time. so forgive me if I didn't make it clear.

[Cobra]

the open.

[Cobra]

Despite an abrupt drop in prices at Tuesday's cash close for the ESU1 contract from yesterday's daily high (1218.50), prices have rebounded in the overnight session and have stabilized above 1215.00. The short-term price pattern remains constructive with an upside price target at 1232.00 but intermediate resistance at 1220.00. The pre-open Globex session experienced a point of acceleration as it rebounded above 1210.00 which should continue to provide support through today's regular trading hours session. Today's session marks the end of the month which should provide some interesting rebalance flows targeted for the cash close. The significant divergence between equity and bond performance over the month suggest the potential for asset allocation into equities and out of bonds. There has been evidence for those types of flows since the August low but its worth noting that as funds build their equity exposure via index futures throughout the month, they will often sell futures at month end and replace the equity exposure with cash equities creating temporary divergence at the cash close between the cash index and the index futures.

Hmm, are you the same person shorted heavily the day before yesterday? Just a question, I'm curious as you two have exactly the same ID.

[Michelle]

Uempel, are you here this morning?

[AK84]

sold my spy hedge at the open!im holding my single stock puts for now. still respecting my trendlines!