Cobra's Market View

Cobra wrote:

BillyRipken wrote:Cobra I believe your zig zag up target was HOD

if Open > Close or red today would be perfect for a very short-term bear play (not for novices of course), as I really find it's hard to believe NYMO and T2122 can go even higher tomorrow.

Statistically, green today, that'd be 4 days up while under MA200, short at today's close, cover when SPY above MA5, 68% chances according to TradingMarkets.

I loveee intraday Cobra setups that allow me to position my option plays before the close!

Thank you kind sir!

cobra, u r communist, right? do u take it as politics or religion?
do u believe in marxism? can we talk about marxism and capitalism?

Marx predicted a crisis of advanced Capitalism based on the rising imbalance of capital and labor in finance-dominated Capitalism. The basic Marxist context is history, not morality, and so the Marxist critique is light on blaming the rich for Capitalism's core ills and heavy on the inevitability of larger historic forces.

In other words, what's wrong with advanced Capitalism cannot be fixed by taxing the super-wealthy at the same rate we self-employed pay (40% basic Federal rate), though that would certainly be a fair and just step in the right direction. Advanced Capitalism's ills run much deeper than superficial "class warfare" models in which the "solution" is to redistribute wealth from the top down the pyramid.

This redistributive "socialist" flavor of advanced Capitalism has bought time--the crisis of the 1930s was staved off for 70 years--but now redistribution as a saving strategy has reached its limits.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug11/cri ... -8-11.html

target reached. still nothing to say although my TA world makes more and more senses to me now.

Open > Close, that's all bear need. Again, all I do here are just "talk" very cheap talk. Statistically, I should buy the next dip...

Option ideas over the next few days:

1. Short CMG
2. Short PCLN
3. Short GOOG
4. Short NFLX
5. Short ANF
6. Short IBM
7. Short BIDU
8. Short WYNN

Use AAPL calls as a hedge (and yes I know its not performed well for the last 2 days but its been a useful hedge in the past) and anything else u deem fit .

GLTA!

Cobra wrote:target reached. still nothing to say although my TA world makes more and more senses to me now.

Open > Close, that's all bear need. Again, all I do here are just "talk" very cheap talk. Statistically, I should buy the next dip...

"Statiscally....."

But will the snake buy the dip??

soku wrote:cobra, u r communist, right? do u take it as politics or religion?
do u believe in marxism? can we talk about marxism and capitalism?

Marx predicted a crisis of advanced Capitalism based on the rising imbalance of capital and labor in finance-dominated Capitalism. The basic Marxist context is history, not morality, and so the Marxist critique is light on blaming the rich for Capitalism's core ills and heavy on the inevitability of larger historic forces.

In other words, what's wrong with advanced Capitalism cannot be fixed by taxing the super-wealthy at the same rate we self-employed pay (40% basic Federal rate), though that would certainly be a fair and just step in the right direction. Advanced Capitalism's ills run much deeper than superficial "class warfare" models in which the "solution" is to redistribute wealth from the top down the pyramid.

This redistributive "socialist" flavor of advanced Capitalism has bought time--the crisis of the 1930s was staved off for 70 years--but now redistribution as a saving strategy has reached its limits.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug11/cri ... -8-11.html

I'm no communist. We Martians have no politics. Politics are for you Earth people that are not advanced enough.

Just to chime in, about the trading books, I have only two: Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts (most of which you can get for free, from his site), and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (old as dirt, but still applicable to modern trading methods). Personally, I haven't found that reading books, has helped me increase my profitability as a trader, though.

AK84 wrote:Option ideas over the next few days:

1. Short CMG
2. Short PCLN
3. Short GOOG
4. Short NFLX
5. Short ANF
6. Short IBM
7. Short BIDU
8. Short WYNN

Use AAPL calls as a hedge (and yes I know its not performed well for the last 2 days but its been a useful hedge in the past) and anything else u deem fit .

GLTA!

How do you normally hedge? ITM or OTM calls? And how far out? Thanks!!

Now passing 14.6% retrace of the Rising Wedge from 8/22.

And I just noticed the 38.2% retrace lines perfectly with 8/30 low and 8/25 high.

I'd say we'll get down to there and fill up the rest of that gap before the end of this week.

The past week has been more calm and balanced with good long and short entries. I feel better. VIX at 32 is better. Love to have the VIX between 25-30 so we all can make good money....

Cobra wrote:target reached. still nothing to say although my TA world makes more and more senses to me now.

Open > Close, that's all bear need. Again, all I do here are just "talk" very cheap talk. Statistically, I should buy the next dip...

do we have a next target for the downside move cobra?

or do you think that's it?

heavenskrow wrote:Target reached of 123 SPY. I am a happy boy as I was in UPRO.
I however am not going to be greedy!

Take my profits and dance along
Peace guys

WOW I SOLD AT THE TOP HAHAHAHAHAHA, sorry I have a huge ego =]

tinted area as 1-2-3 formation target or inverse C&H.

soku wrote:

uempel wrote:I've got to repeat this again and again: break of 1212/15 was immensly important (DMA 377/WMA75). If SPX can stay above that level today (and prove that this is not merely an intraday bounce/bull-trap) this market is heading higher. Possible top for the day is 1240, possible top for the week is 1255. Short only if market tanks down under 1210...

i am demarkian. shadows don't count.
my equ target of es is 1213.5. we are not too far off again

if market reverse here, i think i will win the competition
do i want to win or do i want an easier trading pattern? that's a big question

jarbo456 wrote:

Cobra wrote:target reached. still nothing to say although my TA world makes more and more senses to me now.

Open > Close, that's all bear need. Again, all I do here are just "talk" very cheap talk. Statistically, I should buy the next dip...

do we have a next target for the downside move cobra?

or do you think that's it?

the next target just given.

Cobra wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

Cobra wrote:target reached. still nothing to say although my TA world makes more and more senses to me now.

Open > Close, that's all bear need. Again, all I do here are just "talk" very cheap talk. Statistically, I should buy the next dip...

do we have a next target for the downside move cobra?

or do you think that's it?

the next target just given.

lol got it!

thanks.

pidge66 wrote:

AK84 wrote:Option ideas over the next few days:

1. Short CMG
2. Short PCLN
3. Short GOOG
4. Short NFLX
5. Short ANF
6. Short IBM
7. Short BIDU
8. Short WYNN

Use AAPL calls as a hedge (and yes I know its not performed well for the last 2 days but its been a useful hedge in the past) and anything else u deem fit .

GLTA!

How do you normally hedge? ITM or OTM calls? And how far out? Thanks!!

Depends on a lot of different factors and "feelings" I guess. I normally try not to hold my positions for more than 7-10 days (time decay can kill u ! ) and usually buy at calls/puts at least 2 months out if its a swing position. Day trade is different and I use weeklies sometimes but honestly its very stressful and I have a another job (one that requires me to sit at a desk for 10 hours a day.....i consider that my second job )

I usually ITM options (at least 2-3 strikes below current or entry price) . I start off buy naked calls/puts with protective hedges such as aapl , or stronger stocks that I like (changes EVERYDAY!!) and if i make money and want to hold overnight I either strangle or spread the position to protect profits.

If i had sep puts on any positions I had today I would have gotten v vv pissed with the action of the last 2 days because of the chop and vol! but my positions have respected me ....so far!!

sorry if im not very clear but hope i could help in some way possible!

the most expected correction EVER !

After all of the headfakes we've seen in the past couple of weeks. It's nice to have a day where moves have been more predictable.

stockcharts dot com says there is no way to delete their dotted blue “yesterday’s close” line that defaults on every single chart.

If anyone has a back-door-fix or a work-around or a magical-thingie to delete the dotted line, please post it.

Thanks

AK84 wrote: Depends on a lot of different factors and "feelings" I guess. I normally try not to hold my positions for more than 7-10 days (time decay can kill u ! ) and usually buy at calls/puts at least 2 months out if its a swing position. Day trade is different and I use weeklies sometimes but honestly its very stressful and I have a another job (one that requires me to sit at a desk for 10 hours a day.....i consider that my second job )

I usually ITM options (at least 2-3 strikes below current or entry price) . I start off buy naked calls/puts with protective hedges such as aapl , or stronger stocks that I like (changes EVERYDAY!!) and if i make money and want to hold overnight I either strangle or spread the position to protect profits.

If i had sep puts on any positions I had today I would have gotten v vv pissed with the action of the last 2 days because of the chop and vol! but my positions have respected me ....so far!!

sorry if im not very clear but hope i could help in some way possible!

Thanks AK84. I normally feel "shackled" and frozen given any options hedge, usually I just let it expire worthless. I think options are a lot harder.

What kind of secondary job allows you to trade so much? I'd like to get one!