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04/24/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)

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Cobra
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04/24/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)

Post by Cobra »

Measured move up to be or measured move down to be, your guess is as good as mine. One thing I'm relatively sure is a rebound should be due as early as tomorrow so hopefully the strength of the rebound could tell us "to be or not to be".
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Here's one statistics saying why a rebound is due soon: SPY (not SPX) down 4 days in a row, buy at close, HOLD until the very first day SPY closes up, the winning rate was 86%, the profit factor was 2.8 which was good enough for the trade.
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Cobra
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Re: 04/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

The day trade today.

Guessed a range day here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=252941#p252941), which obviously was wrong. Trend day or range day, some guesses are always required in order for an entry as early as possible, so no complain here.

Waited a pullback to buy here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=252955#p252955) based on the trading reversals setup which was a right decision. I actually still thought it was a range day, just was bad luck calling the range low earlier, the real range low should be here. Fortunately I was on the road, missed the entry, therefore waiting for a pullback was my best bet. The lesson here to be discussed in the future: When the first range attempt failed, does it mean the day would be trend day? I honestly wouldn't think it'd be wrong to buy because really it looked a lot like a range day: 3 leg down already, not down much and it's within yesterday's range so the low of yesterday could be a good support. The only thing that could prevent me from buying was no good consecutive bull bars so the rebound was actually weak.

Pullback as expected, no bull signal bar yet, so no buy. Good decision (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=252959#p252959).

Decisive breakdown, at this stage it's clear that bears shall have legs (I said double bottom required, which means at least a small leg down after the very first rebound, viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=252973#p252973), so the trade should be clear here.

Short here was even not too late because still no very first rebound yet (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=252988#p252988).

This was the very first rebound (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=253023#p253023). I explained why the previous rebound wasn't the very first rebound here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2843&p=253012#p253012). At this stage, we know there should be at least a small leg down still, I also explained and the problem was time. Knowing the info is important if one plans to buy near close for swing trade and if bear plan to book profit since one knows it's probably not THE rebound yet.

So indeed there was a small leg down (red arrow) but it was not an easy entry because the signal bar on 5 min chart was very big, and it was near the close and usually the close is very unpredictable so I would pass the trade, but it should be good enough for the entry of a swing trade and booking bear profit.
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