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Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:03 pm
by cougar
Tuna1889 wrote:Elliot Wave is like economists. They always agree after the fact but too many possibles for the future. If you put all the economists end to end around the world they would all point in different directions. EW counters are the same way.
Tuna: apparently Churchill once said: “If you put 12 economists in a room and you ask a question, you will have 12 different answers…except if one of them Maynard Keynes, in which case you will get 13 distinct answers…”
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:04 pm
by 99er
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:06 pm
by heavenskrow
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:08 pm
by lilitulip
raw beef, that's not palatable.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:10 pm
by ramram
Hi Cobra
Thank you for this site - it is real sweet.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:11 pm
by StrikePrice
jarbo456 wrote:for anyone fairly new out there, i'm a good example of what happens when you over-trade your account. held 20 SPY puts into this morning, up 4k to start the day. tried to catch the counter rally, but the bulls were still sleeping. failed and stopped out of the trade at -500. saw what looked like it was going to break below 118, shorted near the bottom at 118.15. stopped out again, -500. then did 3-4 more frivolous trades pretty much in counterpoint to the range formation of around 119.04-118.66.
net net, screwed up my 4k profits, and cut them in half.
lesson...overtrade = overkill.
i have my own system in place for trading, but i benefit A LOT from this board, sometimes helping me confirm, but more often keeping me aware of aspects that i don't always think about. my particular view is to keep your system fairly simple and repeatable. if you can do that, then i think you can move towards the higher level "optimization" process which is where i feel like cobra is. even with that being said, sometimes, like this morning, your system says up, you think up, and the market goes down and vice a versa, over and over again. i've been at this for 8 years, 5 professionally, 3 for myself, and i can tell you that you are still vulnerable to even the basic mantras of profitable trading.
hate myself for pissing away what i generally target as 2 days of profits, but...we learn and learn, and learn again.
i'm short a small position into the weekend.
good luck trading, and thanks for everyone out their's time and efforts in posting up their ideas, thoughts, and most especially charts.
have a great holiday weekend,
john
Great post because so true. I'm still new at this too and my list of what has burned me since I started goes like this:
Overtrading
Greed
Not following my system
No System
Too tight Stops
Too emotional
Not Paying Attention
No goal
Lack of Plan
No analysis of Mistakes
Preconceived Ideas
Going Against Pros (Why being here at Cobra's board rules!)
Looks like the week will end flat since we closed at 1173.43 last Friday.
Have a great long weekend guys & gals!
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:15 pm
by JustTrading
Hi Cobra,
Could you please update your thoughts about whether you still expect another push up before wave 5 down... your target last night was 1150 then wave 4 up. do you still hold this view? Also what is your view about todays selloff....does it feel strong to you? Thanks much!!
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:16 pm
by pady
StrikePrice wrote:
Overtrading
Greed
Not following my system
No System
Too tight Stops
Too emotional
Not Paying Attention
No goal
Lack of Plan
No analysis of Mistakes
Preconceived Ideas
Going Against Pros (Why being here at Cobra's board rules!)
Have a great long weekend guys & gals!
You pretty much listed all issues I have with trading
Have a nice one...
pady
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:18 pm
by StrikePrice
ramram wrote:Does anyone think wave 4 is done? and we head up on wave 5 to about 1240-1250 range
Can you be more clear about your count. I run a short-term count and have S&P in Wave 5 down from 1231. It sounds like you're talking a larger degree and an Alternate Count that is Bullish. My larger degree count is Bearish and it's heading to 1160 area.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:20 pm
by Rezito
heavenskrow wrote:WTF I DO NOT UNDERSTAND SILVERS RALLY TODAY!!! IS silver now acting as a safe haven??? Even when the dollar is starting to breakout??
(I understand silver and golds fundamental long term....but dont understand this intermarket move currently....)
Sitting here stumped......
Gold and silver are playing into the hands of those that are thinking either safe haven or QE3, aka more inflation. Gold has already taken but silver hasn't confirmed the move, so now that it's over the $43 range it should hit $50 or even more.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:23 pm
by heavenskrow
hmmmm thats what I figured...but lets say the dollar rallies hard from here....it doesnt matter?
And I understand gold as safe haven...but silver as safe haven????
Or the traders are speculating that there will definently be QE3....ahhhh fundamentals dont make sense....
thats why I stick to TA lol
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:23 pm
by Cobra
JustTrading wrote:Hi Cobra,
Could you please update your thoughts about whether you still expect another push up before wave 5 down... your target last night was 1150 then wave 4 up. do you still hold this view? Also what is your view about todays selloff....does it feel strong to you? Thanks much!!
I didn't give target, the chart is for direction only.
As whether there's one last push up, I have to check my charts, don't know yet.
hard to see whether the selling is strong today, need see the close. statistically, big gap down, lower low after 10:30am ET, 90% chances Open > Close, so I'll assume we close low of day today? really not sure.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:25 pm
by Roadrunner
pady wrote:StrikePrice wrote:
Overtrading
Greed
Not following my system
No System
Too tight Stops
Too emotional
Not Paying Attention
No goal
Lack of Plan
No analysis of Mistakes
Preconceived Ideas
Going Against Pros (Why being here at Cobra's board rules!)
Have a great long weekend guys & gals!
You pretty much listed all issues I have with trading
Have a nice one...
pady
pady - my issues list is the same as yours except - too much listening to TV business news. i never watch it anymore.
GL
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:30 pm
by jarbo456
going to hold my BAC shorts through the weekend.
not sure if this means all THAT much as it always tends to be a bit lagging in my experience, but i find it very interesting that there's NO buying on weakness in BAC today, even with it being down far more than other financials. in fact, there are no financials being bought on today's weakness (unless you count TRV).
does anyone else find that interesting?
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:31 pm
by v1stock.com
gold & silver long , run up to 9/11/11 then sell?
spy short , run down to 9/11/11 then buy?
who will hold spy long over 9/11/11? not me
1st of month look at monthly charts of your holdings, trend is macd + or - 0.
now for bla bla, "In 2010 central banks began to buy gold rather than sell gold, as a group. If you think that is because of some “epiphany of understanding the nature of gold”
, you are free to believe so, but the reality is that central banks are buying gold to devalue the dollar, and all paper money. These buy programs have only just started, and they are not going away."
kitco.com
if so, know your trend
and trade with the trend
alert for flash crash
max pain is fast up clean shorts, then fast down run the stops
must be many stops at August low
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:34 pm
by silicon_beaver
I closed my silver today. but the FAS loaded today is under water.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:37 pm
by StrikePrice
Bears still have some room to go lower...just not the time...
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:40 pm
by silicon_beaver
D@mm
Why I read the posts on over-trading so late? Obviously it applied to me.
...
Learning.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:50 pm
by 99er
Time to cover your shorts?
DWCF
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/dwcf.html
Ah, honey...I was just getting comfy.
Re: 09/02/2011 Intraday Watering
Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:51 pm
by alvian33
Cobra, wen trading is also your website?