04/28/2018 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week had 61% chances to close up.

[Trades with cats]

Two weeks of roughly 15 minute bars. I like these tick charts because they show the non-North American market action in an appropriate way.

I marked a bar with the end of week difference between daily and weekly VWAP and then copied that over to this week. Fits right in with the high low retracement band and the volume Point of Control for the two week period.

Insert your favorite picture of a hamster running in a wheel here.

[Trades with cats]

Article up at zero hedge that sounds like "The Big Short" all over again. This time, instead of selling sub prime debt the game is to sell the difference between short and long term yields to retiree's looking for income. The calculation apparently put an unrealistically high initial yield on these synthetic securities. Sounds perfect for Goldman, get people to bet on the yield cure during Fed repression of the yields and then sell the other side to savvy but patient investors who are waiting for the inevitable curve inversion to make these things worthless.

I am sure these things will be banned for retail by Senator Warren before they get interesting. You know the Fed will cut short term rates to zero when the next recession hits so buying these things for cheep after the curve inverts would be a sure thing. Too bad about the greedy Goldman customers that 'trusted' their broker because they didn't want to do 15 minutes of research on yield curves. As they say a fool and his money.

Follow up point on poor thinking. Unbelievably I am seeing articles where so called journalists are questioning why Amazon didn't stay up after good earnings. How can you get paid to write articles where you apply a relatively meaningless metric and then complain when the market doesn't respond. It is like featuring pictures of Miss Stormy Daniels calf or foot as an explanation for her appeal to men like the President.

[QED]

Insert your favorite picture of a hamster running in a wheel here.

A hamster was left trapped on the side of a running wheel after another hamster hopped onto the wheel and sent it flying out.


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[tim-follows]

very concise and coherent technical view of overbought stock indexes atm.
quarterly
monthly
weekly

Bearish

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/techni ... -to-watch/