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05/01/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)
05/01/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)
Good looking hammer, so maybe tomorrow bulls have chances.
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Re: 05/01/2018 Market Recap
The day trade today.
At this stage I knew bear may have legs (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253385#p253385). The question was to short now or to wait for a rebound then do L1/L2? I had no answer, it depends. In theory and it's actually right in today's case, short without waiting for rebound should work because even if shorted and trapped the later 2nd leg down would grant a safe exit (since we knew this bear shall have legs). (Please don't ask me question if you don't understand the following. It's a note for me, I won't answer any question as it'd be long answer. This recap is more like a trading log for me, I just happy to share but I don't want to spend lots of time answering questions, thanks) The Doji before the last big red already warned 50% chances it might be the final flag for the current leg down so at least need wait for the current bar to finish and only shorted if the current bar closed as Doji indicating another 50% chances of final flag. The current bar later closed as a bull bar, so the decision should go with short the coming L1 or L2 perfectly near the EMA20?
L2 short triggered at EMA20 (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253401#p253401).
Double top, bears looked promising at this stage (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253429#p253429).
The usual breakdown then sharp rebound trick (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253444#p253444). So breakdown always is a good spot to book some profits, if one knew the trick, the short today should be profitable otherwise empty handed today. At this stage, I knew the low was in. The question again was to long right here or to wait after the higher low test. Usually should wait for the higher low test but sometimes it just never pull back, like in today's case. My thought at the time was, the rebound target obviously was the day high, so long now would have poor risk reward ratio therefore at least should wait for a pullback.
There's no pullback until near the close (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253463#p253463), I knew it's long but I'd pass (since it's near the close).
The later day long turned out very profitable, well, no complain, I simply cannot grasp every chances. I'd be more than happy if by the end of the day, I didn't lose money.
At this stage I knew bear may have legs (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253385#p253385). The question was to short now or to wait for a rebound then do L1/L2? I had no answer, it depends. In theory and it's actually right in today's case, short without waiting for rebound should work because even if shorted and trapped the later 2nd leg down would grant a safe exit (since we knew this bear shall have legs). (Please don't ask me question if you don't understand the following. It's a note for me, I won't answer any question as it'd be long answer. This recap is more like a trading log for me, I just happy to share but I don't want to spend lots of time answering questions, thanks) The Doji before the last big red already warned 50% chances it might be the final flag for the current leg down so at least need wait for the current bar to finish and only shorted if the current bar closed as Doji indicating another 50% chances of final flag. The current bar later closed as a bull bar, so the decision should go with short the coming L1 or L2 perfectly near the EMA20?
L2 short triggered at EMA20 (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253401#p253401).
Double top, bears looked promising at this stage (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253429#p253429).
The usual breakdown then sharp rebound trick (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253444#p253444). So breakdown always is a good spot to book some profits, if one knew the trick, the short today should be profitable otherwise empty handed today. At this stage, I knew the low was in. The question again was to long right here or to wait after the higher low test. Usually should wait for the higher low test but sometimes it just never pull back, like in today's case. My thought at the time was, the rebound target obviously was the day high, so long now would have poor risk reward ratio therefore at least should wait for a pullback.
There's no pullback until near the close (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2854&p=253463#p253463), I knew it's long but I'd pass (since it's near the close).
The later day long turned out very profitable, well, no complain, I simply cannot grasp every chances. I'd be more than happy if by the end of the day, I didn't lose money.
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Re: 05/01/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)
"I'd be more than happen if by the end of the day, I didn't lose money."
Clearly you meant more than happy, and it is so important for investors who are beginning to utilize short timeframe strategies to realize and internalize that preservation of capital is where it all begins. That's where it starts, and everything else swings out from there.
The math of it shows that making up losses takes larger gains than simply having slow steady gains. But then people can't boast as much on any given occasion, or whatever is their psychological thing.
Clearly you meant more than happy, and it is so important for investors who are beginning to utilize short timeframe strategies to realize and internalize that preservation of capital is where it all begins. That's where it starts, and everything else swings out from there.
The math of it shows that making up losses takes larger gains than simply having slow steady gains. But then people can't boast as much on any given occasion, or whatever is their psychological thing.
Re: 05/01/2018 Market Recap (with note to myself)
Thank you for "Happy", I corrected it.Daniel wrote:"I'd be more than happen if by the end of the day, I didn't lose money."
Clearly you meant more than happy, and it is so important for investors who are beginning to utilize short timeframe strategies to realize and internalize that preservation of capital is where it all begins. That's where it starts, and everything else swings out from there.
The math of it shows that making up losses takes larger gains than simply having slow steady gains. But then people can't boast as much on any given occasion, or whatever is their psychological thing.
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.