Cobra's Market View

Daniel wrote:TLT lod, down >1%.
If TLT were to close here, it would be a classic-MACD crossover sell signal--from the negative histogram area. The recent venture into the 119 area would be a clear lower high, and a target of the Feb low on TLT might then be attainable (ca. 116)

We usually track TLT on this board, and TLT is the 20+year Treasury fund so it moves the most. But IEF, the etf which holds 7-10 year bonds, is closer to the commonly watched and quoted 10yr rate. And IEF has already undercut its Feb low, and is trading at a fresh multi-month low-- with terrible CMF (moneyflow) on its daily chart. This looks like distribution at a major low, not accumulation.

te_fern, I saw a flurry of I am guessing short covering when we crossed the overnight low then volume dropped as we appoached S2 Opening print.

By the way in my endless pursuit of the Holy Grail system I have gone back to two trailing stops, tight and loose. Fat Tails has said that volatility changes with the square root of the time so the slower stop is double all the parameters of the fast stop except for the ATR multiplier which is times the square root. They are the dots connected by lines and they do use a bit of a parabolic SAR function to give a wide berth when they reverse.

Small bounce at VWAP. I'm not nimble enough to play these small swings and to play shorts. So, I'm on the sidelines today to wait until things turn more positive. Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button!!

Trades with cats wrote:

ES 06-18 (2000 Tick) 2018_05_15.png

te_fern, I saw a flurry of I am guessing short covering when we crossed the overnight low then volume dropped as we appoached S2 Opening print.

By the way in my endless pursuit of the Holy Grail system I have gone back to two trailing stops, tight and loose. Fat Tails has said that volatility changes with the square root of the time so the slower stop is double all the parameters of the fast stop except for the ATR multiplier which is times the square root. They are the dots connected by lines and they do use a bit of a parabolic SAR function to give a wide berth when they reverse.

TWC, it is very interesting to watch your pursuit of the Holy Grail. Thanks for sharing your ideas!!

Long term dip ?

The Financials have been strong, started rolling over yesterday....

/ES bounced off weekly pivot.. possible larger H&S .. weak bounce RS LOD goes again.. look to 50d/20d confluence

From Briefing.com:
Earlier the 2-yr yield was up two basis points at 2.56%. This is its highest level since August 2008.

Bios have been trading higher in boxes, but is pressuring the bottom side of their current box.....

With the dollar stronger, Gold futures has taken it on the chin the last two days....

te_fern wrote:Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button!

This is why the term (and strategy) SOH was invented. SIT ON HANDS. Be careful to place the knuckles comfortably under the buttocks.

Daniel wrote:

te_fern wrote:Got to keep my hands away from my brokerage account's buy button!

This is why the term (and strategy) SOH was invented. SIT ON HANDS. Be careful to place the knuckles comfortably under the buttocks.

Thanks for the suggestion, why I like this board!!

IWM gap fill, and beyond. Smallcaps seem to be riding their general correlation w dollar strength.
Domestic econo-strength is good for the smallies. Also, note the endless succession of new highs on $Lumber. Lots of building going on.

INDEXes.. SPX possible island top.. NDX not pretty,VIX green IWM lags in the down move… TRANSports weak

TICKs trying to move higher, Qs have broken thru its MA line....

European exchanges have closed. ES stuck in a really tight 4 point range for close to an hour. Overnight low at the top and the 20 EMA right down the center.

fehro wrote:INDEXes.. SPX possible island top.. NDX not pretty,VIX green IWM lags in the down move… TRANSports weak

nibble short RUT 1600 / IWM 159.50 VIXEs still inching out nHODs

Trades with cats wrote:It isn't that it is a rigged game, I think it more that those with deep pockets play a different version, like a medieval game of thrones, we all have our place but the rules for us aren't the same as for those with titles. If it was well and truly rigged I don't think we would see the turn over in the great houses. This is, after all the great game.

I think that if you think it isn't rigged you are holding a conspiracy theory.

Every large dip was bought by the US Govt at 10% since 2009.
It is rigged.
The free market died.
zero % LT bonds and negative yield IS rigging.
It has forced pension funds and govt around the world to move into equity from LT bonds.
It is rigged - no question.

fehro wrote:

fehro wrote:SPX possible support.. but Thurs GAP 2704-2698 looks like it wants a fill… cover partial shorts here from yesterday +30 … may bounce for a bit

not sure weak bounce, another RS of green H&S .. and breaks again.. look to 20d/50d tags

buckle up RS done.. neckline green goes SPX /ES possible another -40 point drop coming.. mind the 20d/50d SMAs for support