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05/23/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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05/23/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

Today's bar was bullish so still could be an Ascending Triangle in the making therefore up is a little more likely than down.

What? Volume? Since when volume matters?
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Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 05/23/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

The trading log below is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense. I speak loud about what I think how the market would go in the next dozen of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible. Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's part of the game. If I always have a good day, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world, so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.


Usually gap down means immediate rebound at open (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254559#p254559) so wait.

The first touch of EMA20 usually can tell us whether the market wants to go up or down (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254580#p254580), so again, wait. It's an ideal place to initiate a short simply because the stop loss would be close, but there's a but, which I explained here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254584#p254584), which also explained why it might be too late to short if you waited until the trend became clearer, and this was why I was hoping for a higher low (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254581#p254581).

Day low indeed was the target (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254590#p254590).

Here's the usual way I use to judge whether the low might be in or not (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254597#p254597). The theory is the with trend leg (down today) should get weaker and weaker and the against trend leg (rebound today) should get stronger and stronger, eventually the trend reverses.

I think I did very good explanation on why short is always hard (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254598#p254598).

Since the mini target was met so by here I knew at least today would be a range day therefor the theory of trade a range should apply (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254608#p254608).

The pullback was into buy zone here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254613#p254613). My comment here was misleading, no strong bull bar needed because when it does appear it may already be out of the buy zone.

By here, I actually believed the low was in (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254617#p254617). I told my friend buying here should be OK but I dare not speak out loud because just yesterday someone blamed me for having bias which I already said earlier, I hate people saying I'm biased. I am no biased, I've already explained many times why trading on the downside is hard. I'm a half empty guy so I'm actually a nature bear.

By here, I was finally sure the rebound would go on (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254620#p254620). So again don't blame me because it would only make me more conservative therefore making calls later or even stop saying things.

Explained how to in theory trade range here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254625#p254625) and here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254628#p254628). So hopefully no more saying my call for range high/low was wrong. Be sure to know the concept before pointing fingers.

FOMC minute at 2pm so a pause here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254636#p254636).

The easiest trade today might be here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254646#p254646): This bull shall have legs. Depends on your trading style, a H1 might be needed though.

I knew the target should be a measured move (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254650#p254650) and indeed (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254654#p254654).

Here's the 2nd buy dip chances (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2890&p=254656#p254656), again depends on your style, H1 might be needed.

Very strong close, the 2nd buy dip was also profitable enough.
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