05/25/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

breakdown, might test day low. probably we have the range of the day now.

[Al_Dente]

LAST TEN DAYS AT A GLANCE
note TRAN is in solid brown, sweet… see lower chart

What’s up with TRAN?
Here’s YTD TRAN performance %, with the TRUCKING INDEX in lime, and the RAILROAD INDEX in black (SPY in dashed-purple for comparison).
Related anecdotes can be found in the news, regarding a severe shortage of truck drivers, despite a few companies being forced to double driver salaries, to keep their poaching-peers away… true story …
(also, as fehro mentioned earlier today, transports love lower oil/gasoline prices)

[Cobra]

probably targeting day high since it's a range day.

[Al_Dente]

INSIDE THE SMALLS:
Small-energy companies (lime) are not very heavily weighted in IWM, RUT.
Nonetheless, they may provide a headwind.
YTD percent

[Al_Dente]

Memorial Day Trading: Bullish Day After
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17424 ... -day-after

[Junior Buffett]

Memorial Day Trading: Bullish Day After
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17424 ... -day-after

I would say 50-50..dont you think?

[Al_Dente]

WEEKEND READING from Fat Pitch:
"So, did equities peak in January and are we now headed for a recession and a bear market?
Probably not."
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2018/05/w ... rt-of.html?

[Al_Dente]

JUNK BONDS, HYG, has 1004 holdings
14.33% are energy

[Trades with cats]

Tuesday morning I think there are going to be some serious meetings at Hedge Funds, I don't know how they operate but I would expect a crisis meeting to be early. I would guess a lot of discussion will go on at Hamptons parties this weekend. I don't follow FANGS very closely, but with the general market not exactly moving up and all the trash talk about Amazon's home listening device I am assuming that leg of the stool is flat.

Major consensus trades:
Long oil is in margin call territory.
Short US 10 year is in rip your face off short squeeze rally mode.
Hedge Fund Hotels stocks could be flattish or worse.

Only thing left is sell the VIX and it looks like it is getting ready to go the other way.

Too soon for those sudden drops in the mid afternoon when the margin guys at the banks liquidate a hedge fund with a big bang, but the set ups are getting there.

[Cobra]

mini target, exceeds it before I blah blah. still no trade today.

[Trades with cats]

Bounce off overnight lows looks a lot like yesterday's stretched out bottom that I complained about at the time. I was re-enforced in my opinion by FuturesTrader 71 this morning as he called it out as abnormal. He thought it looked weak. I really doubt we test it today though.

[Cobra]

mini target exceeded, the rebound targeting the range high?

[fehro]

slow melt

[Trades with cats]

Last three times the market has flirted with 2700 there has been a decent sized gap involved. Not predicting anything, just observing.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Trades with cats]

Look at the volume profile on the right

[Trades with cats]

Same Chart, only July Crude Oil

[Trades with cats]

Looking at the above two charts and staring at the volume profile on the ES I am simply speculating that if the hedge funds have to raise cash next week because of oil and treasury losses that 100 point run up in six days in the ES could go away very quickly. Difference is the ES does not have Saudi commentary to push it over a cliff. But we do have the Chief Tweeter negotiating trade. Just say'in.

[fehro]

/ES support here.. may sideways all day.. big players gone.. if not lower yellow… the move is in the /CL rug pull… oil weakness / support of indexes wanes

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:45 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/05 ... ay-update/