Cobra's Market View

rola wrote:I do not think that Greece will just collapse over weekend, in that case Europe will fall apart, they can not do this because domino effect - for now!

Greece news is to old. Next week is OPEX.

proteus46 wrote:
I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo

If break through that lower channel of the bear flag that has been forming all the way back since Aug.10, the chances for a major bull rally on Monday go down significantly.

The bear flag pattern has been in play with multiple support and rejection touches in the channel for about a month now and a break from this month-long pattern will result in a strong move, regardless of how oversold RSI, Stochs, and other technicals indiciate.

Remember, in a bear-market, bear-market rules apply. Patterns will resolve to the downside in a bear market. Likewise, in a bull-market, patterns will resolve to the upside.

If we bounce HARD off the lower trendline of the month long bear flag, then the story for Monday changes. Right now, bulls fighting fiercely to defend lower bear flag trend line, but it's getting harder and harder to jump start a rally here, even with large volume block trade spikes.

Let's see what the market will show us in the last hours of trade for the week.

I have been trading IWM (options) for the last couple of days - looks to me like it is going to go for the lower channel line
from 8/9 at around 66.40 - .5 depending on what time it hits.

it was a successful EMA gap short. now it's hard to call, because it's revisiting the previous low, therefore the retest can fail at anytime, or a decisive breakdown. Either way, we'll have to wait. Statistically as I said while ago, 90% chances, today Open > Close.

janez wrote:

proteus46 wrote:I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo

Why say so?

I think there is something to the Patriotic rallies of the past. They are statements to those that are against capitalism.

The recent threats we heard about yesterday, the tenth anniversary, the recent 4% decline in the S&P are all reasons for
some heavy buying. I don't have any technical indicators except that the 60 minute slow stochs are below 20 and we are getting near the
lower BB band (60 minute ) chart. No serious economic data released on Monday.

2 bar reversal, and the previous bull bar was the largest one and with volume surge, so I think it'll breakdown to at least test today's low.

proteus46 wrote:

janez wrote:

proteus46 wrote:I think we are setting up a major bull rally for Monday. The only requirement is that Greece does not default over the weekend. imo

Why say so?

I think there is something to the Patriotic rallies of the past. They are statements to those that are against capitalism.

The recent threats we heard about yesterday, the tenth anniversary, the recent 4% decline in the S&P are all reasons for
some heavy buying. I don't have any technical indicators except that the 60 minute slow stochs are below 20 and we are getting near the
lower BB band (60 minute ) chart. No serious economic data released on Monday.

Maybe the terrorists have now planted a financial bomb in the EU-periphery, which might blow up in a short time...

The early departure of the German ECB member looks to me as if the rats are leaving the sinking ship

but at least somebody is arranging the deck-chairs on Titanic

From the weekly view point, the huge tail on the shooting star is a give away. You can bet against it, but that is a low probability chance (look at chart I attached - chart created by Albertarocks but explains what I'm also looking at)

Add the fact that the shooting star tail was rejected by the weekly 80 MA which has decided bull/bear markets in the past 10 years, and you get an even LOWER probability play.

Finally, zoom into daily and hourly views and you quickly see the bear flag which has been in play for the past month.

As I like to say, when three different witnesses all have corroborating stories, it's probably true. It *could* be false, but you are not playing the proper side of the odds game, which is entirely what trading and investing is all about. Probabilities.

Chances are pointing to a break of the bear flag, and red weekly candle next week.

If we get the break of the bear flag today in the closing hours (this I have no idea), we will have a flush down on high volume to retest the Aug lows.

Bottom line: You don't want to be on the wrong side of that action when it happens. If not sure, better to stay in cash and see what happens. If you you want to take some calculated risk, you play a tight short as the rewards of a break flag break are high. However, playing a long position right now on the equities market is not a high probability profit making move.

Richard Lehman's chart

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favo ... 5&cmd=show
page 3

GO!GO!GO! PLEASE BREAK AND BRING CHAOS!!!!

testing the low as I said. And although no evidences, but personally I think the low won't hold. we'll see.

Slow..If we can break 1150 then next is to go thru 1145.Lets see.

BullTart wrote:From the weekly view point, the huge tail on the shooting star is a give away. You can bet against it, but that is a low probability chance (look at chart I attached - chart created by Albertarocks but explains what I'm also looking at)

Add the fact that the shooting star tail was rejected by the weekly 80 MA which has decided bull/bear markets in the past 10 years, and you get an even LOWER probability play.

Finally, zoom into daily and hourly views and you quickly see the bear flag which has been in play for the past month.

As I like to say, when three different witnesses all have corroborating stories, it's probably true. It *could* be false, but you are not playing the proper side of the odds game, which is entirely what trading and investing is all about. Probabilities.

Chances are pointing to a break of the bear flag, and red weekly candle next week.

If we get the break of the bear flag today in the closing hours (this I have no idea), we will have a flush down on high volume to retest the Aug lows.

Bottom line: You don't want to be on the wrong side of that action when it happens. If not sure, better to stay in cash and see what happens. If you you want to take some calculated risk, you play a tight short as the rewards of a break flag break are high. However, playing a long position right now on the equities market is not a high probability profit making move.

Thats why Ive been long TMF... and dont get shaken out on moves because I know its a bear flag, and I have yet to see a bear flag after a H+S break up to the upside....BTW the august lows was perfect 38.2% retracement..so if we break that,

For some reason I dont think we will hold the support of bear flag today.....(just feeling, no chart)

breakdown as I expected, let's see if it could reach the Descending Triangle target. Not sure but let's watch.

I think the big picture should be clear now if you remember what I said last night. The tinted area target was exceeded.

Cobra's real time 5 minute SPY page 2

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favo ... 9&cmd=show

I'm not saying low was in, there's a chance we might go like this because it could be 3 push down. Calling reversal on a strong trend day is difficult, so just for fun.

Ok the mkt will try to break dn again???sure would like to see it test the 1140 today but may not have time.???

Oh there is plenty of time for 1140..we may be there already