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05/29/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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05/29/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 05/29/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log below is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
  • My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
  • Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
  • Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.


SUMMARY:

Called downtrend day with later reversal up correctly today. The question is, are there any ways to call downtrend day earlier?


NOTE:

On gap down day, almost always rebounds at open toward ema20, so generally I'd wait for testing ema20. The guess here was wrong but this time I remembered the lessons I learnt from the past by clearly saying I'd take no action so should be no blame of me here (http://www.hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=vi ... a=page%3D1).

Rejected by ema20 twice here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254841#p254841) but the pullback wasn't sharp, so still I was cheering for bulls. The short setup was 5 bars ago when it was rejected at ema20 for the first time. I discussed this setup in May 23 Market Recap. The problem today was the rebound appeared even stronger than that of May 23, so to short on the very first bear signal bar near ema20 was really a luck bet to me, see chart below.
1.png
Testing day low, at this stage it should be clearer that it's likely a downtrend day but I was still cheering for the bulls. Anyway, technically it's still too early to say bulls were over because of 50% chances double bottom here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254855#p254855).

Decisive breakdown with strong follow through, so no more excuses for bulls, it was a downtrend day (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254868#p254868).

Now the focus was where was the later day reversal up. A down from open to close day was very rare, say, 1 out of 6 down days?

Here was the first place to book bear profit because more often than not, bear has no legs despite the very first leg appeared very very strong (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254881#p254881).

My guess was based on general pattern, nothing magic (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254883#p254883). Again, lots of times, there's simply no dashed blue line, so cannot rely on the 2nd test of the low to decide whether to book bear profit or not.

Pullback indeed (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254885#p254885). The "remember" blah blah was just to make sure if no later day rebound nobody shall blame me. I really hate people saying I'm biased. I am biased, but you're not allowed to say to my face. :mrgreen:

Honestly, several times today I was about to write the break down was more likely while bears kept touching the lower blue line which usually meant a break was more likely. The instincts kept me from writing so. Eventually, the later day reversal up did happen (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2899&p=254916#p254916).

Overall, I wished I could decide it was a downtrend day earlier. The next time I might try riskier approach but I'll make sure I mention the risk.
2.png

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