06/08/2018 Market Recap

[Cobra]

So no further pullback so the target still is the horizontal blue line above.

[Cobra]

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log below is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

SUMMARY:

Recognized a valid double bottom breakout around noon (a little bit late maybe), the rest of the day was then easy.


NOTE:

First guess of double bottom here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255475#p255475). I wasn't sure but at least by here I knew the day was unlikely a bear day. The best trade might be as shown in the chart below: Testing the previous low, not too bad bull signal bar followed by not too bad bull entry bar, since the stop loss could be very close therefore might be worth a bet. I honestly didn't pay attention because as soon as I was sure about range day, my mind went to "kill more orcs, so that Tailon who lost everything fighting Sauron can gain more skill points"...

By here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255484#p255484), I couldn't help asking myself how I could miss the rally again. The reason, it was a double bottom then higher low (around 11:30 am) then broke above neckline again with 3 consecutive bull bars. So a valid breakout on the 2nd try which added successful chances and the higher low means trading reversals setup. The entry here was worse than buying the higher low and this was why "I couldn't help asking myself...".

Indeed it was up and up (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255491#p255491).

Generally the pullback should be bought because "this bull shall have legs" (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255498#p255498). The big problem was where to set the stop loss if decided to buy the pullback. In theory it should be below the start of the push up which was around 11:30 am, but this would mean the 1x target is almost impossible. If however, set the stop loss closer in order to make at least 1x, today likely would be stopped out as shown in the chart below (red arrow). So really how to set the stop loss? I have no answer.

The up after bull flag (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255498#p255498) wasn't strong, so all of sudden I felt the urgency to book some profit here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2916&p=255509#p255509) which is another important topic - where to book profit, which I have no answer too.

It turned out the "feel of urgency to book profit" was unnecessary in theory but if I didn't, it'd be very hard to hold through the 3:30 pullback (red arrow), so I don't think the feeling was too bad.