06/26/2018 Live Update

[te_fern]

See how long this channel lasts....

[Al_Dente]

bloomberg and cnn, et.al.
All are reporting this morning that China “is in a bear market”
l

wow , I remember the days when concern about China's economy slowing was cause for a drop in the US market since global demand was going going to be impacted.
Now, it is a reason to celebrate and run up the US markets wtfdik ? - obviously nothing

they are blaming it all on the impending tariffs
Sooooo…. If China is down -20% from its high, and SPX is only down -4% (from its Jan 26 high)
Does that mean that the market believes the U.S. will win and China will lose?
Way too simplistic… plus China "never" loses ………

[te_fern]

Still climbing....

[Trades with cats]

China is trying to deal with the largest credit buble in the history of the planet. Trump, his negotiations and tweets happened to step in front of a high speed train run by the central bankers. But the news media are expert at finding simple sound bite explanations so we will all say it is the trade war and ignore the liquidity draining out of the credit markets.

[Al_Dente]

China is trying to deal with the largest credit buble in the history of the planet. Trump, his negotiations and tweets happened to step in front of a high speed train run by the central bankers. But the news media are expert at finding simple sound bite explanations so we will all say it is the trade war and ignore the liquidity draining out of the credit markets.

thanks boss
What indicator do you use to measure liquidity in the credit markets?

[Al_Dente]

potus LIVE now
"trade talks going really well"

[fehro]

possible invs H&S.. or green triangle.. too early yet

grinding up .. mind yGAP …. 2740 major resistance.. "should" stall

[fehro]

possible invs H&S.. or green triangle.. too early yet

grinding up .. mind yGAP …. 2740 major resistance.. "should" stall

mind the yellow wedge for some short term choppiness

[Junior Buffett]

possible invs H&S.. or green triangle.. too early yet

grinding up .. mind yGAP …. 2740 major resistance.. "should" stall

mind the yellow wedge for some short term choppiness

Fehro, Is there any brick wall as a hope for Yesterday Bear? What price you will drop the towel on Bear?

[te_fern]

I widened the channel a little, but we're about to test the lower side....

[Al_Dente]

"death cross"
gold
[blmbrg]

[Trades with cats]

I don't have access to any of the pro tools on credit. I do see from time to time that chart called world wide credit impulse as well as the combo central bank balance sheet. I guess the easiest thing is to look at the yield curve, it is a blunt instrument but it doesn't lie. The next steps will be sub prime spreads to decent grade corporate blowing out.

China is a puzzle because of all the wealth products and the regional governments fudging their statistics. So I just hope for the occasional well researched article.

My personal plan (when I have a free day to research) is to find a few very high yield etf's that Interactive will let me short and the ratings firms are nervous about. I am going to chart the price because with 4 to one leverage it won't be cheap making the interest payments waiting for the fall. But I am counting on the amazing greed and then the total panic of the average investor to drive those funds down hard by 30 to 90 percent when the panic in credit hits. I trust junk with poor liquidity in a bad market will not be easy to peddle and the etfs (i hope) may have to gate withdrawals just adding to the senior citizen panic. Just like the shale patch bonds in 2016 only worse because of covenant light and better yet proceeds went to stock buybacks i.e. might as well be called unsecured. I am assuming you saw the article a couple weeks ago where the vulture funds have already raised over 50 billion and are just waiting for "the" event.

[te_fern]

Maybe rolling over....

[Trades with cats]

Skipped off of that 1 standard deviation on VWAP zone (blue) twice already. Maybe third time's the charm? I see several bands of resting buy orders between price and VWAP that sellers need to chew through.

[Al_Dente]

Banks look pretty dreadful (talk about your -20% bear market )
These are the TBTF big banks:
GS is down roughly -20% from its march ATH
MS is down roughly -20% from its march ATH
C is down ALMOST -20% from its jan ATH
JPM is testing its feb low
BAC is below its feb, april and may lows
All are quite below their 200sma

[Trades with cats]

Should be, Fed cut their allowance.

[Trades with cats]

I should add, it wasn't the 5 stinking basis points, it was the fact that they established the precedent.

[Cobra]

the pullback might be bought again.

[Al_Dente]

The "Dow Divisor" will change due to the addition of WBA today
PLEASE POST when u see the NEW divisor, thanks

[fehro]

possible invs H&S.. or green triangle.. too early yet

grinding up .. mind yGAP …. 2740 major resistance.. "should" stall

mind the yellow wedge for some short term choppiness

Fehro, Is there any brick wall as a hope for Yesterday Bear? What price you will drop the towel on Bear?

same as before 2665-75 range that goes.. 200d will not hold this time