06/27/2018 Live Update

[te_fern]

Levered energy jumped over 5% this morning...

[te_fern]

There's a jump to a new morning high...

[te_fern]

Levered smalls can't seem to break over yesterday's peaks.....

[Cobra]

so far looks like an uptrend day. if by the 11 am still no sharp pullback then bull's chances are good.

[Al_Dente]

YESTERDAY: the “Trump Tariff Put”
We got the first sign of a “Trump Tariff Put” on Monday as the White House (Navarro) walked back threats to the Tech sector late in the day after a steep intraday decline in US stocks.
So how much of an equity decline would it take for the administration to soften its tone on trade? We know from Monday’s headlines this is their Achilles Heel. But how big is that target?
Two answers:
1) Down 9% on the S&P from here, as long as the decline was clearly due to trade war concerns. The math behind this guesstimate: the index is up about 18% since Trump took office. Giving back half those gains would be palatable. More than that would not be, and may even spook markets and consumers into thinking a recession was inevitable…
2) A 3-5% one-day move lower based on European/Chinese retaliation. We know from Monday’s action that 2% is some sort of a pain threshold (and right around 500 points on the Dow), but “fixing” it was still in the administration’s power (Navarro’s late date walk-back).
[source: Nick Colas of Datatrek Research via zh]

THIS MORNING MNUCHIN COMPLETELY WALKED BACK THE TRADE FEARS.
"What happened over the weekend there were leaks saying that president had made a decision had been made. It was completely not true." … "Those leaks were not helpful to the markets or not helpful to the process." Mnuchin blamed White House trade advisor Peter Navarro for sending mixed signals Monday about the Chinese investment restrictions.

Bottom line: this is a TWEET MARKET, as we all know

[fehro]

nibble short not ideal.. RUT struggle at 20d SMA TRANSports red

nada.. wants to fill that upper gap.. /CL pushes up hard again

try again nibble short.. key resistance 2745 .. looking for possible morning gap fill

[Cobra]

resistances here.

[Al_Dente]

The irony is that China had already instituted new rules restraining foreign investment, to stem their capital flight.
[We learned last week that China’s investments in the US dropped by 92%]

[Trades with cats]

Trapped longs want out, going to be hard work to move back up through all that resistance.

[MrMiyagi]

EIA Inventory showing large Crude draw.

OPEC

[MrMiyagi]

NASDAQ feeling heavy with Chinese tech stocks not doing too well and Biotechs sort of flat.

[fehro]

IWM RUT nLOD.. VIX inside still TLT bonds push

[QED]

If anyone has IB you can see on their SPY chart nearly every morning at 8A ET there is a spike way out of the norm. At 8 Am ET this morning the spike was down to 270.56 on the SPY. Prior bar SPY was around 271.85 and the bar after 271.60 ish

Whenever it is possible for you to do so, please post the levels of the IB SPY chart spikes that are "way out of the norm." Thanks!

[Trades with cats]

John Kemp charts showing US refineries at new record levels of output. Also US oil exports off the charts up.Oil bulls had better hope vacation driving is at new record and our "friends" stop buying Iranian crude.

[fehro]

nibble short not ideal.. RUT struggle at 20d SMA TRANSports red

nada.. wants to fill that upper gap.. /CL pushes up hard again

try again nibble short.. key resistance 2745 .. looking for possible morning gap fill

some support here … mind /CL double top daily.. oil pushin the index..

[fehro]

/CL's pushing indexes maybe drawing to close .. mind that bearish wedge.. top here next couple of weeks.. take out $66ish .. look for $46 by Nov.. I know.. insanity talking

Just look to DXY nHOW nHOD.. over 95.50 she could fly…. add Merkel's gov't collapse… EURO tanks, USDollar.. rockets like nobodies business = pain for /GC gold /CL oil

[te_fern]

Trapped longs want out, going to be hard work to move back up through all that resistance.

Almost traded and would have been a captured long. The last couple of long trades have not worked out in this market. Sitting on my hands for now!!

[Cobra]

rejected at resistances, the pullback might not over yet.

[QED]

.
Tom Bowley: Stockcharts.com

Historical Tendencies

The bearish historical period from June 18th through June 26th has ended.....thankfully. While futures are weak this morning, historical tendencies begin to turn bullish tomorrow. The June 28th through July 17th period has produced annualized returns of +24.14% on the S&P 500 since 1950. That's 15 percentage points above the average 9% annual returns over that same period.

The NASDAQ's historical tendencies are a bit more choppy from now until July 17th, but we do start a brief four day bullish historical period tomorrow that has produced annualized returns of 66.67% since 1971.

.

[fehro]

/CL's pushing indexes maybe drawing to close .. mind that bearish wedge.. top here next couple of weeks.. take out $66ish .. look for $46 by Nov.. I know.. insanity talking

Just look to DXY nHOW nHOD.. over 95.50 she could fly…. add Merkel's gov't collapse… EURO tanks, USDollar.. rockets like nobodies business = pain for /GC gold /CL oil