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07/11/2018 Market Recap

07/11/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:33 pm

One day doesn't make a trend no to mention it's a doji which means indecision. Let's see tomorrow.

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Re: 07/11/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:53 pm

SUMMARY:

Tricky day. Again it's essential to wait for the bar to close before judging the trend and it's very common to break down then sharp reversal up.


NOTE:

It's a diplomatic way of saying short here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2966&p=256750#p256750). I discussed the setup before several times: Gap down, always rebounds to ema20 then on the first test, bears have to bet the luck with only one reason - the stop loss can be close.

I was on the road so missed the comment here: It looked a lot like a higher low reversal up. However the first (10:30 am) rebound didn't break ema20 so not a strong one, so it's not a trading reversals setup therefore I'd prefer to see more bars therefore when the 3rd bar closed with long upper shadow, I'd know it's not a long. So here it's essential to wait after the bar closed. Believe or not, I'm pretty sure I won't long if I were not on the road.
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I was still on the road so missed this double top. I mean missed the comment, not the trade as I'd avoid trading breakdown (because it mostly reverses up sharply right after).
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I saw possible double bottom here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2966&p=256765#p256765). Again, if waited after the bar closed, it'd be clear the breakout was a head fake so long could be avoided. My mouse was already on the buy button, it was really very tempting long setup, too bad or luckily the bar closed weak.
4.png


Explained the tricky part of the day, after the double bottom breakout failed, it made a double top breakdown which as usual followed immediately by a sharp rebound (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2966&p=256770#p256770).

Explained how I judged the low was in or not here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2966&p=256768#p256768) and here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2966&p=256771#p256771).

In the end, the low was indeed in but it wasn't sharply up like I thought. My mouse was once again on the buy button... Bad close, might be a bad sign for tomorrow.
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DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

    My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
    Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
    Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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