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Weekend Watering Hole

Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:07 am

Good Morning.

Looking at DWCF, it appears that Friday's high may have been a local top. The four-hour chart below illustrates a Bear Flag (in gold) within a long-standing channel down (in purple) while the one-hour chart illustrates the right half of a possible Head & Shoulders top within the flag. For bears, it may be a great week ahead.

DWCF-4H http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/dwcf-4h.html
DWCF-1H http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/dwcf-1h.html

Have a great weekend!
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:43 am

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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby KENA » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:05 am

Hi 99er..I left you this post Fri but I think it was after you left...I read last week an article that the Vix was developing a H&S pattern.The article did not have a chart.I could not find any chart on the Vix that was showing a H&S.Do You have any chart or info showing this.If this is true we could be coming into a dn move.Iwill check back with you later. Thanks
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:07 am

Good morning!
Nice charts, 99er!
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:11 am

I am counting red candles on a monthly SPX chart, since 2000...
One might notice that if we have four consecutive red candles, the next one is usually green - with one exception: the beginning of “the big down” starting at the end of 2007. However, in all circumstances that candle has a “short body“, and often it is an “almost doji”.

Otherwise, on this same chart, I keep my previously discussed 3 support levels:
1. A weak one at 1145, that we already played with twice
2. A stronger one at 1050
3. The mother of all targets/supports: 845 to be met around the Ides of March, 2012.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby KENA » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:21 am

cougar wrote:I am counting red candles on a monthly SPX chart, since 2000...
One might notice that if we have four consecutive red candles, the next one is usually green - with one exception: the beginning of “the big down” starting at the end of 2007. However, in all circumstances that candle has a “short body“, and often it is an “almost doji”.

Otherwise, on this same chart, I keep my previously discussed 3 support levels:
1. A weak one at 1145, that we already played with twice
2. A stronger one at 1050
3. The mother of all targets/supports: 845 to be met around the Ides of March, 2012.


Does this mean that sept will be green or indicatng a possible sharp dn move coming up.Some of the articles I have been reading have been bearish and also now they think the mkt will not like what Big Ben has to say on Wed.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 11:59 am

KENA wrote:
cougar wrote:I am counting red candles on a monthly SPX chart, since 2000...
One might notice that if we have four consecutive red candles, the next one is usually green - with one exception: the beginning of “the big down” starting at the end of 2007. However, in all circumstances that candle has a “short body“, and often it is an “almost doji”.

Otherwise, on this same chart, I keep my previously discussed 3 support levels:
1. A weak one at 1145, that we already played with twice
2. A stronger one at 1050
3. The mother of all targets/supports: 845 to be met around the Ides of March, 2012.


Does this mean that sept will be green or indicatng a possible sharp dn move coming up.Some of the articles I have been reading have been bearish and also now they think the mkt will not like what Big Ben has to say on Wed.


I do not know…but according to the observed pattern, Sep will be a small body candle, probably green (naïve P~0.75).
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:12 pm

The recent move of SPX.
I am prudently out of it for the weekend, during which bad vibrations are expected from Athens.
However, it could easily go to 1228 - 1230
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:25 pm

The internals of $NDX are perfectly compatible with a correction, which could be soon signaled.
$NDX 130 min:
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:38 pm

Nice start of weekend discussion, Nice longer term out look by cougar and 99er for what to expected I am with you sir. I wish I came back before market close on Friday. I am a short term guy so I will mainly look for short term stuff any thing over 3 days is long term :D
I see signs of weakening, mainly a trend change and bearish crossed as shown here.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:55 pm

Trend is up buy the dips is on. lets zoom in. every time there is the sign of a change I always look for trend formation pattern in this case I will pay attention to a bear flag and mid price channel as my starting point. Sell/Buy will be determined accordingly, now is a buy a trade below 120.74 is a sell. that's the action I will follow in a week to come, I try to keep thing simple as much and not to rely on my rusty crystal ball so much. GLTA
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:57 pm

Or someone may see it as Triangle, also here buy/sell line is the same.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sat Sep 17, 2011 1:48 pm

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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby cougar » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:15 pm

“ Peace in our time!” - Arthur Neville Chamberlain, 1938...

Unusual VIX chart (130 min):
- the usually docile envelopes are rebellious and refuse to stay nested.
- the bias to the upside is obvious, but expected.
- the time periods spent by VIX under the inside envelope are rare, short and precede a violent upside move… On this chart they are labeled in blue: 1, 2...

First watch the 3 “?“ and the low ATR…They suggest that we are now at a crucial moment for the VIX, in which we could switch to a new pattern of behavior, or NOT!
If NOT, we shall have an abrupt VIX upswing soon = market sell off!
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby KENA » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:17 pm

99er..Cougar..BB52x..Thanks for the charts and info. Agree things are getting toppy.I always take the position when the mkt gets close to a res. point it will do it.So the mkt may go to test the 50ma which is about 1228,its not that far off. I will check back in late afternoon.Were going to a Church Pot Luck.Those ladies are sure good cooks. Later
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sat Sep 17, 2011 2:31 pm

VIX

Looks to me like values will be rebounding off the lower channel line in what may prove to be a Bull Flag. An Inverse Head & Shoulders may be a stretch given the slope of the "neckline." Surely an interesting week ahead.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/vix.html
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sun Sep 18, 2011 8:15 am

Compare this with the VIX chart above...

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx_18.html

Very interesting.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby 99er » Sun Sep 18, 2011 6:11 pm

Last edited by 99er on Sun Sep 18, 2011 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering Hole

Postby xfradnex » Sun Sep 18, 2011 7:23 pm

cougar wrote:I am counting red candles on a monthly SPX chart, since 2000...
One might notice that if we have four consecutive red candles, the next one is usually green - with one exception: the beginning of “the big down” starting at the end of 2007. However, in all circumstances that candle has a “short body“, and often it is an “almost doji”.

Otherwise, on this same chart, I keep my previously discussed 3 support levels:
1. A weak one at 1145, that we already played with twice
2. A stronger one at 1050
3. The mother of all targets/supports: 845 to be met around the Ides of March, 2012.


Your chart is very convincing.
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
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