The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.
But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.
heavenskrow wrote:
Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.
Thx for sharing
i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....
wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!
Bear declining issues still holding very strong 2500
VIX not too shabby 34
My fav 50/200 crossed bear this morn on 5m, usually good for a few days, but whipsaws not unusual http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =243584215
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
rebound as I expected, just it's a little weaker than I thought. kind of ambiguity time now: breakout would be bullish 1-2-3, breakdown would be bearish 1-2-3. since the trend is down, so bearish 1-2-3 has more credit here if indeed breakdown.
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The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.
But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.
The attachment tlt.wedge.png is no longer available
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.
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davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are
zb2.png
Exactly, I only have closing prices in prorealtime for ZB.
Thats why Im looking at finviz with a 5 min delay and trading TLT lol
PLeAse keep me updated though
The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.
But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.
tlt.wedge.png
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.
Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.
The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.
But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.
tlt.wedge.png
Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.
Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.
My extreme target to take profits no matter what is http://heavenskrowinvestments.blogspot. ... arget.html
146.35 on ZB chart... But you should add if we break out from the resistance line on davros's chart..... Just keep in mind the dollar is rallying despite the anticipation of Fed meeting.....
Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.
Thx for sharing
i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....
wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!
good, my statistics didn't cheat me, indeed the red line touched, I assume the higher red line will be touched too. let's see.
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