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09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby ultramarine » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:44 pm

Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.


tlt.wedge.png
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:50 pm

MajorEasy wrote:
MajorEasy wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:
Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.


Thx for sharing

i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....


wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:52 pm

Bear declining issues still holding very strong 2500
VIX not too shabby 34
My fav 50/200 crossed bear this morn on 5m, usually good for a few days, but whipsaws not unusual
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =243584215
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:52 pm

rebound as I expected, just it's a little weaker than I thought. kind of ambiguity time now: breakout would be bullish 1-2-3, breakdown would be bearish 1-2-3. since the trend is down, so bearish 1-2-3 has more credit here if indeed breakdown.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:53 pm

ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.


The attachment tlt.wedge.png is no longer available


Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:54 pm

rola wrote:Cobra on wich site can I do my very good opinion about you


http://www.investimonials.com/blogs/rev ... -view.aspx

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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby stockcycle » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:57 pm

Feeling that the high of day will be revisited. And then may be Higher high.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby davros » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:57 pm

with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are

zb2.png
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Netrom » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:00 pm

I have a fakeprint all the way up to cap filed
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:00 pm

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are

zb2.png


Exactly, I only have closing prices in prorealtime for ZB.
Thats why Im looking at finviz with a 5 min delay and trading TLT lol
PLeAse keep me updated though
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby ultramarine » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:01 pm

heavenskrow wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.


tlt.wedge.png


Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.



Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby uempel » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:02 pm

Update :D
SPX7.png
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:03 pm

Very bearish looking here, a start of a bigger trend directional once trade below MA band and 195 dma hrere.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:04 pm

ultramarine wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:
ultramarine wrote:Howdy, fellow Cobrans,

The new high on TLT speaks volumes about where the market seems to be going in the near future -- down.

But how long could bonds keep rising? I am seeing a wedge pattern here that suggests it may not have much further to run. This may not necessarily mean that stocks will reverse higher, especially after the FOMC. Both could end up falling together.


tlt.wedge.png


Maybe...as the smart money usually buys up bonds before and sells it to the Fed knowing there will be a buyer.



Right. So what is your upside target for TLT? Maybe it won't stop at 118 and we enter some Japan-like deflationary period where the 10-year hits 1%.


My extreme target to take profits no matter what is http://heavenskrowinvestments.blogspot. ... arget.html
146.35 on ZB chart... But you should add if we break out from the resistance line on davros's chart..... Just keep in mind the dollar is rallying despite the anticipation of Fed meeting.....
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:05 pm

Triangle, continuation down play? Thanks Cobra and everyone,peace! short on.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:06 pm

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are

zb2.png


Davros please let me know when we break out from that resistance, so I can re-enter my 75% in TMF.

-I dont have realtime data on ZM =[
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby BullTart » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:07 pm

Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering
by heavenskrow » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:50 pm

MajorEasy wrote:
MajorEasy wrote:
heavenskrow wrote:

Going back to the SP500's inception, with this strategy you would be up 172.62 % on your initial investment, and 54.55% probability of winning trades.


Thx for sharing

i've got some trading software that automaticcally measures the angle of the cross of the 2 moving averages to improve win-rate.
narrow angles during a cross is not good,
this current angle is as good as it can get.
let's see if it makes money....


wow thats pretty interesting, i wish mine could do that!


Thanks guys- very helpful information indeed!!!
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby ultramarine » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:08 pm

davros wrote:with bonds it's better to look at the real thing - ZB, not an etf like tlt, this should show pretty clear where we are

zb2.png


Agreed -- you can't beat the real thing. So a broadening top. Are you expecting another touch of the rising resistance line?
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:09 pm

*
Last edited by 99er on Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 09/19/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:14 pm

good, my statistics didn't cheat me, indeed the red line touched, I assume the higher red line will be touched too. let's see.
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