07/30/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

generally the rebound should be sold. actually it's ema gap short setup now. I'm not following the setup, just a info here.

[Trades with cats]

1. Fed liquidity is really neutral with even Euro zone slowing down for the first time in 10 years. So any and all arguments about the past decade are suspect with the biggest strongest player of all changing the rules. Making comparisons to the recent past is to your own peril.

2. Have not had such a bad combo on FAANG earnings in a while. Margin debt at all time highs. This could potentially end very badly.

3. As Hussman pointed out growth is over for Apple, now a low margin commodity struggle. But hey Tim has lots of cash so he will announce ever greater shareholder loyalty bonus until he retires. We saw in February when the market goes down even record levels of buybacks can't turn the tide. When funds have to sell, they sell and the ETF's will just make it even worse so record buybacks are not a guarantee of ever higher prices, yes they help a lot, but not a guarantee.

4. Expecting nothing from Fed. Bulls desperate for a pardon from the FOMC but Powell made it clear to congress, no pardon for this economy they will raise until it is dead.

5. Jobs report or as I like to call it, the monthly Algo fest will be carefully analyzed but prove nothing. Last month was again a real sign of the economy where less than a highschool degree had job gains while college and beyond increased their unemployment. Can't wait to hear once again how bullish it is that part time minimum wage jobs are adding to the number of working poor in this country whose existence must be subsidised with welfare programs.

So yes bears will be cautious this week but bulls have nowhere to go, no breakout area. Summer drift.

[Al_Dente]

MS suggests their clients rotate towards defensives and value / away from growth, small caps, and Tech to position for more drawdowns ahead.
From a hedging perspective investors should consider:
• Shorting the MS growth factor and momentum basket
• Shorting the MS high HF [Hedge Fund] ownership basket
• Buying NDX puts – QQQ Sept 170 puts (25^) for ~1.34%
• Buying SPX put spreads – Sept 2775/2676 (35/15^) for ~57bps, 5.25x max risk reward

[Trades with cats]

Lots of buyers got their bargain prices on the way down, looking like the sellers are looking for ES 2814 for a starter.

[Trades with cats]

I get sector rotation in a rising market. But, in my opinion, only a mutual fund management company or commission brokerage would recommend moving into defensive stocks. They don't make anything if you build cash reserves. If the market goes south cash is king. Defensive stocks won't matter this time because of the ETFs, they will sell everything, not just the stuff that still has buyers. Especially as a big sell off will be because of the Fed drying up liquidity. At the same time a decade worth of new hires on Wall Street will get to experience margin calls for the first time. Worse a new generation will get taken to the cleaners and will never put money into the markets again.

[Trades with cats]

For Wednesday

[MrMiyagi]

WE'RE NEVER EVER GOING UP AGAIN!!!!

[Trades with cats]

Bam! Big bounce on the overnight low. Looks like somebody woke up.

[Al_Dente]

I get sector rotation in a rising market. But, in my opinion, only a mutual fund management company or commission brokerage would recommend moving into defensive stocks. They don't make anything if you build cash reserves. If the market goes south cash is king. Defensive stocks won't matter this time because ............

i agree

[Trades with cats]

Looking like the afternoon rally is hanging by a thread here. Once again that overnight low (from beginning of Asian trading) is a major level.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-1aVVEKep0

[Al_Dente]

For Sale:
157 acres in 90210
Cheap !
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/29/beverly ... llion.html

[1der]

Happy Hour ???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm-y0d4 ... e=youtu.be

[1der]

FB In the open Gap now (April 25)

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:30 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/07 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

possible trading reversals long setup (break above bar high trigger the buy), too bad it's near the close now.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/07 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Goal line defense at 2800. What a way to wrap up earnings season.
If I was a hedge fund guy I would be scared to go on vacation.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been generally bull friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp