08/01/2018 Live Update

[Trades with cats]

Isn't it about time for the lifegard to whistle everyone out of the pool for the Fed?

[Trades with cats]

Some Elliot Wave view that could come true between the Fed and Payrolls Friday.

Coolbiz-
July 29- SPX long standing BULLISH Count.This correction is likely going to be shallow to 2770-2750. Reverse and make a new high beyond 2873. Below 2691.99 is ST validation for ALT. deep correction bearish (45%) probability posted below.
Over 2873 bearish count is toast.

July 30 Both scenarios are valid, bullish with 55% probability. It will clear up by next week or late this week.

July 31 ES met the min. target of 2825 precisely , a bit more to go yet.Will short higher TBD

Sold relongs(@2801.50) from yesterday at 2815. It may(or may not) stretch to 2825-2829 area,after another drop below 2800.
ES did reach 2827.75, went short at 2826.50, will add more if higher in AM.
yesterday- Covered short at 2812.50 +14 x 14 is good for now. Will reshort in AM. (if you don't trade futures, that is $700 times 14 contracts)

Nothing today.

Pretzel Logic- need a second impulsive leg down to confirm the bear case. He says so far this week is the best looking week for bears in a while.

My conclusion, these guys are in general agreement with Cobra that we are waiting for a decision from the market and right now the market is flirting with the bears, a little.

[Al_Dente]

FOMC in a few minutes

[Cobra]

2 min to roller coaster show, purely from the chart, right now looks like building a double bottom.

[Cobra]

show time

[Al_Dente]

no rate change
no change to future guidance

[brokebybernacke2]

no rate change
no change to future guidance

ok so what is left to propel us to new highs???

[Trades with cats]

Scenarios for higher market.

1.Payrolls Friday-if it stinks market will go up on hope Fed backs down.
2nd choice, even more buybacks by all the heavy hitters on top of a new China trade deal.
3. Bank of Japan joins Swiss National and takes major stake in FAANGs.

[Trades with cats]

Wave 1 is down, breaking double bottom. Waiting for 2 up and 3 down, the one we are supposed to play.
Looking like one down may be headed for yesterday's low.

[Al_Dente]

must read:
Today, Fidelity cut expense fees on two new funds to ZERO
“…it will also cut fees by an average of 35% on its existing index mutual funds, and allow investors to open accounts with no minimum balance required.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... to+zero%29

[Al_Dente]

no rate change
no change to future guidance

ok so what is left to propel us to new highs???

buybacks?

[brokebybernacke2]

no rate change
no change to future guidance

ok so what is left to propel us to new highs???

buybacks?

yes, when does that start again?

[Trades with cats]

never gets old watching them pull their orders before the announcement. Pretty clear ES 2815 would be an unexpected high.

[Cobra]

sounds like the low was in.

[MrMiyagi]

sounds like the low was in.

Caution is warranted, at 15:00 there will be a China Tariff update that could sac-kick the markets again.

[Al_Dente]

ok so what is left to propel us to new highs???

buybacks?

yes, when does that start again?

in the past, the buybacks kicked in roughly ONE WEEK AFTER the eps report..... BUT THERE ARE MANY LOOPHOLES...

[Trades with cats]

How many times can they unleash Kudlow and Munchkin before their credibility goes to zero.
Waiting for Tariff announcements from China, not going to fool me twice!

[Trades with cats]

Buybacks don't help if the founder and the CEO are unloading cough, Faceplant, cough.

[Trades with cats]

What happened to the upside?

[1der]

All the PBars from last night and especially the ones from the morning Pbars, all hit and identified turning points for today.
The green lines are the ones from this morning, and the lowest green line is from yesterday morning.