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08/08/2018 Market Recap

08/08/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:51 pm

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Re: 08/08/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:19 pm

SUMMARY:

Despite all the blah blah I basically had no idea where the market was doing so no trade.


NOTE:

Basically called range day and range low here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257868#p257868). Normally I don't short, so this means I'd wait for the pullback from the range high then see any long setup.

By here it's confirmed indeed it was a range day (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257873#p257873), the question was where the new range low was.

Guessed a triangle here right (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257874#p257874) which means the market wasn't sure where to go either. Why? Highs get lower and lower means bears are eager to sell while lows get higher and higher means bulls are eager to buy, so how am I suppose to know which side would win eventually? So stand sideline, I will.

Triangle confirmed here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257878#p257878).

Here was just, hey, please click my web site, I need visits (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257879#p257879). I honestly didn't think it'd be double top, even it were the failure rate would be very very high, I wouldn't trade it anyway.

Called breakout here right (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3010&p=257880#p257880). Please note, breakout more likely means the resistance likely wouldn't hold. It doesn't mean the breakout would be for real, I simply couldn't see that far, so as long as the line is taken decently (a few cents broken don't count), I'd consider my call being right. So no, "breakout more likely" itself doesn't have any trading value, I myself nowadays rarely trading breakout unless the context leading to the breakout is very very favorable, say, I already know "this bull shall have legs", then a very good looking consolidation and the day is early, I might think of buying. But in today case, the close was already near, so breakout not, real or not, didn't matter, I wouldn't trade it anyway.

In the end, breakout indeed, but it failed. Most breakouts/breakdowns are simply false and this is why nowadays I rarely trade them.
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DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

    My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
    Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
    Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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